NAS/QQQ Weekend Levels (Sep12-16)

Nasdaq rallied off the LTF 618 Fib last week and gained 4.68% trading in a range of 762 points. This week will be data heavy with the key CPI data coming out on Tuesday as well as PPI data and Retail Sale on Wednesday & Thursday. Friday is option expiry which will further complicate things. Last week’s move comes off expectation that inflation has peaked, and this week’s CPI data will come in lower than expected. It is impossible to predict how the market will react so best to position yourself neutral going into Tuesday. The Nasdaq must get above 13000 for bullish continuation. Conversely, if the Nasdaq drops a move back below 12594 it would be bearish. The 50 SMA & 55 ema zone remains a key level to watch. Basically bullish above and bearish below. Below are some things I am considering going into this trading week.

Of note... I will be away the first half of the week so updates will be limited to this chart.

WEEKLY EVENTS

Monday Nothing Notable
Tuesday US CPI, US API Oil reports
Wednesday US PPI, US EIA Crude Inventories
Thursday US Retail Sales, US Initial Jobless Claims & US Industrial Production
Friday Un. Michigan Sentiment, Euro Zone CPI & Options Expiry

NOTABLE EARNINGS

Monday ORCL
Tuesday Nothing Notable
Wednesday Nothing Notable
Thursday ADBE
Friday Nothing Notable

BULLISH NOTES

Potential positive Ukraine News
Dropping Oil prices
Potential positive reaction to CPI
Bullish momentum if price stays above 9/21/55 emas
200 SMA back in range
Broke short term down trend
Bond yield weaken

BEARISH NOTES

Potential Russian escalation of the war in Ukraine
Russia may cut off energy to Europe completely
Potential negative reaction to CPI
Negative momentum if price drops back below 5/9/21 emas
Bond yield strengthen

Comment:

Overnight bullish. Here is a chart showing the 20 sma and the 50 sma. I like to use the 9/21 emas, but the market is has been working off the SMA well lately so I have been using them also. Note that price is above the 9/21 cloud but currently running into the 20 SMA. This is likely to act as resistance off the open. Above the 20 SMA is bullish.

Comment:

Nasdaq overshot the 20 sma but got hammered on the CPI print. Price had made it to the bottom of the Neutral Zone before tanking. We had a consolidation day yesterday so now a waiting game. Expect chop unless price breaks higher or lower from the flag. 618 Fib providing support so far. Levels below are the recent pivot low and the Higher time frame 382 fib.

Comment:

Closer look at the flag.

Comment:

Eventually broke out of the bearish flag and tapped the downside target. Very volatile week but the levels worked well. Upside resistance rejected price, key support was broken and the downside target was hit. Finished on a positive note, but not surprising to see the late rebound on a monthly/quarterly OPEX.