Note - this analysis is entirely contingent upon a high being made here. A new high annuls the analysis. All this is doing is mapping out the typical swings we see in a break as part of prep for dealing with one if it comes. Betting the high is in here in speculative (I have puts, but it's a high RR setup).
Follow up to:
As discussed in the last post, there was the classic bearish signal which I hate because I know most of the time this makes some sort of bull trap or even a spike out high/new trend high.
However, if we're going to complete the classic shallow bull trap, we'd be around the high of that now.
So here's the break plan if it happens.
First drop bounces around 1.27.
Retests the break.
Capitulation leg to 2xx fibs.
Probably a retest of 1.27.
Rejection from 1.27 can set up stronger downtrend.
Follow up to:
As discussed in the last post, there was the classic bearish signal which I hate because I know most of the time this makes some sort of bull trap or even a spike out high/new trend high.
However, if we're going to complete the classic shallow bull trap, we'd be around the high of that now.
So here's the break plan if it happens.
First drop bounces around 1.27.
Retests the break.
Capitulation leg to 2xx fibs.
Probably a retest of 1.27.
Rejection from 1.27 can set up stronger downtrend.
Trade active
Comment:
Long 820 puts. 900 entry.
Flat trading supports the possible EW break.
Stops above high.