In that post further weakness was not ruled out as at least a retracement was anticipated which did not materialise.
In fact since then price appear to have formed leading anticipation that we might have ended the cycle.
I would have no problem with that, however looking at the bounce from the last low of 11th March, it appears that wave A is a , ie 3 swings rather than 5 (normally a sign of corrective move), which is then followed by potentially , similar to several USD pair on H4 time frame. This ( ) also suggests that the corrective move to the upside could have ended.
Likewise DXY appears to be forming corrective move to rather than evidence of reversal. If correct then further weakness for Kiwi lies a head.
Though there are many who have switched to side saying that marks the end of cycle.
1. The bounce of the last low is abc zgzag with wave c being and .
2. overall still in down trending channel and bumping against previous support which now could turn into resistance. So far the price seems to have rejected higher prices.
3. Next potential support could be at of the 2009 low to 2011 high is 0.69 (if the 0.7180 zone of fails to hold).
4. Potential low around 0.69 could be supported by several fib confluence of both retracement and extension.
5. Oh H4 - the has just formed a cross and failing at overbought zone.
6. Weekly still below 50 and could fail to breach it.
See weakly chart for larger picture
Any Bulls should not give too much room to their long positions as this is a high risk trade.
Traders should see what confirmation they require to consider possible short trade.
Observe the price as it moves to 0.72 in order to get clues about future expectation namely if the previous low would hold and form triple bottom or head to lower zone around 0.69.
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