In the monthly time frame, NZDUSD is in a correction. The dawn impulse began in July 2014 and lasted until August 2015. The correction started in August 2015.
There are two hypotheses here:
1. This correction ended in May 2016 . There followed a wave A or W 1 of 5 waves. And now there is an expanded ABC correction which began in December 2016, being now in wave C at the end. This hypothesis is denied by reaching the maximum of 0.74854;
2.This correction is not over, this hypothesis is confirmed by exceeding 0.74854.
In conclusion, we should expect to see what the price is doing in this area. Reversal to short or continue long.
There are two hypotheses here:
1. This correction ended in May 2016 . There followed a wave A or W 1 of 5 waves. And now there is an expanded ABC correction which began in December 2016, being now in wave C at the end. This hypothesis is denied by reaching the maximum of 0.74854;
2.This correction is not over, this hypothesis is confirmed by exceeding 0.74854.
In conclusion, we should expect to see what the price is doing in this area. Reversal to short or continue long.
• We notice that we are in a corrective channel, which is following an impulse in 5 waves down
Monthly:
• We are in a correction of the bearish trend (started in July 2014 to August 2015), which will soon be 2 years (twice the time of the main trend)
Weekly:
• We are on a correction trend, which can be described as follows:
After a diagonal lead (forced-but can also be an abcde), an A up wave followed. Then a correction (Wave B) is now in a Wave C. This count is invalid if the price exceeds 0.74854
In this case ABC would be an extended type of correction
• Or this scenario: we are in an ascending trend in a Wave 5. One thing makes me doubt the correctness of this variant, Wave B in the correction must be an abc, and it is right as a pole ...
• Or this scenario: we are in a complex correction and experience we know that they can end when they will lol
Indicator survey:
OB = Overbought
OS = Oversold
Stochastic:
• M = OB
• W = OB
• D = OB
• 4h = Bearish crossed OB
• 1h = OB crossbreed bearish
RSI:
• M = 55.62 bullish
• W = 66.62 Bullish
D = 73.41 OB
• 4h = 75.94 OB
• 1h = 69.66 goes down, negative divergence
Williams% R: (W <-20 bearish signal / W> -80 bullish signal)
• M = -5.17 OB
• W = -1.26 OB
D = -3.15 OB
• 4h = -6.26 OB
• 1h = -24.62
MACD:
• M = negative divergence in training
• W = hidden negative divergence - if the price exceeds 0.74854 this divergence is canceled
• D = negative divergence in training
• 4h = negative divergence in training
• 1h = negative divergence
ADX DMI: ADX under 20 is not trend / + DI> -DI bullish / + DI <-DI bullish
• M = ADX = 15.16 is not trend, + DI> -DI
• W = ADX = 20.07 it seems that a trend + DI> -DI is formed
• D = ADX = 35.85 decreasing (upward trend weakens) + DI> -DI
• 4h = ADX = 34.6 strong upward trend + DI> -DI
• 1h = ADX = 51.66 strong upward trend + DI> -DI
Conclusion:
The price is in an interesting area if it fails to pass 0.74854 then we can expect a downward impulse that can bounce from the trend line or it can go down. If the price exceeds the above mentioned value, the following limitation would be the 61.8% of the downward momentum started in 2014. Next week we will have the answer. Good luck!