A Fundamental and Weekly Trend Analysis
Much of this trade is based off of US Federal policy, and on counter trend trading the gross short interest on NZD. On June 20th, the Fed's rate is effectively at 2.4%. The speculative net positions short are increasing on NZD and AUD.
www.investing.com/ec...ative-positions-1616
www.investing.com/ec...ative-positions-1615
Asian currencies are hurting as well. This trading point takes inspiration from a tweet storm of fundamental statistics posted by @Trinhnomics. twitter.com/Trinhnom.../1130996478535540736
Now, compared to the Fed's target low rate of 2.25%, or just a 15 basis point drop, Jerome Powell has said in a recently aired interview that he wants to keep the interest rate at least above 2%.
At 18 Minutes, he addresses the issues that Trinhnomics mentions the growth problems with Asian countries that use lots of USD, and goes on to talk about wanting to stay above 2%. www.youtube.com/watch?v=XXX4jgBj...
President Trump wants a cut, and one in the range of 2-2.25% could satisfy him politically. Trump wants to hit new ATH in the stock market, so lets say above 3000 SPX. A cut or two into that range could take the SPX to those levels.
The next 2 Fed meetings will be on July 30th-31st and September 17th-18th.
The trade goes as follows:
---
Enter a position long before July.
If the Fed Rate decision is to cut keep the trade, and anything else should end this trade.
If the cut was not sufficient and did not help the hurting economies dependent on the dollar, or help Trump's political economic targets, there may be another cut coming in Sept. To clarify, "Help" for those Asian countries just means that their investments are either less negative than they are now, or even positive. With that in mind, a second cut could cause a breakout in price to break 2019 NZD highs, and possible short-term reactions could cause price to go higher than 0.715 before a third Fed meeting unless the USD is preforming poorly for some reason.
NZD speculative net positions will likely start to show signs of improving. As the effects of cuts to help the Asian countries receive investments again would help NZD investments as well.
---
Much of this trade is based off of US Federal policy, and on counter trend trading the gross short interest on NZD. On June 20th, the Fed's rate is effectively at 2.4%. The speculative net positions short are increasing on NZD and AUD.
www.investing.com/ec...ative-positions-1616
www.investing.com/ec...ative-positions-1615
Asian currencies are hurting as well. This trading point takes inspiration from a tweet storm of fundamental statistics posted by @Trinhnomics. twitter.com/Trinhnom.../1130996478535540736
Now, compared to the Fed's target low rate of 2.25%, or just a 15 basis point drop, Jerome Powell has said in a recently aired interview that he wants to keep the interest rate at least above 2%.
At 18 Minutes, he addresses the issues that Trinhnomics mentions the growth problems with Asian countries that use lots of USD, and goes on to talk about wanting to stay above 2%. www.youtube.com/watch?v=XXX4jgBj...
President Trump wants a cut, and one in the range of 2-2.25% could satisfy him politically. Trump wants to hit new ATH in the stock market, so lets say above 3000 SPX. A cut or two into that range could take the SPX to those levels.
The next 2 Fed meetings will be on July 30th-31st and September 17th-18th.
The trade goes as follows:
---
Enter a position long before July.
If the Fed Rate decision is to cut keep the trade, and anything else should end this trade.
If the cut was not sufficient and did not help the hurting economies dependent on the dollar, or help Trump's political economic targets, there may be another cut coming in Sept. To clarify, "Help" for those Asian countries just means that their investments are either less negative than they are now, or even positive. With that in mind, a second cut could cause a breakout in price to break 2019 NZD highs, and possible short-term reactions could cause price to go higher than 0.715 before a third Fed meeting unless the USD is preforming poorly for some reason.
NZD speculative net positions will likely start to show signs of improving. As the effects of cuts to help the Asian countries receive investments again would help NZD investments as well.
---
Comment:
idea has been moved over here:
Joe Baus, bausbenchmarks.com