timwest

PAIRS TRADE - BUY OIL SERVICES ETF OIH - SELL SPY

AMEX:OIH   VANECK VECTORS OIL SERVICES ETF
202 6 4
The spread between the performance of OIH             and SPY             has been extreme for a couple of years now. OIH             has gone nowhere now for 8 years, since 2006 and the SPY             is up 48%.

The catalyst for this trade to unwind is simply the movement of funds away from the big-cap S&P500             stocks that have been lately making us all wonder how the market is staying up despite the big hits to technology and internet-related names. The generals are leading the army as the IWM             Russell 2000 index             is far from its highs. I think this is a time when it makes sense to be long the basic industries and short the overall index .

Keep in mind though, that I have a weekly buy signal on the SPY             with a 184 stop. Pairs trading these positions in a portfolio would mean letting go of the SPY             long position or cutting it down in size.

Risk tolerance - roughly 5% - potential return roughly 20% over 3-6 months.
Subscribe to my indicator package KEY HIDDEN LEVELS $20/mo or a discount for a year and join in the trading room KEY HIDDEN LEVELS here at TradingView.com
2use
2 years ago
Is it me or are the latest ideas of yours Tim imply that stock indices are going down? I actually went to get some gold and raw materials today after seeing your charts
Reply
timwest PRO 2use
2 years ago
I'm extremely wary about the S&P500. I see the year being a down 10% year for the S&P. Nailing the exact day, week, month of the top is a challenge, but you can see all of my posts on SPY and DIA and see what I'm thinking. I try not to hedge at all and make specific forecasts with stops in price and time. So, I think this is a fools game chasing these levels of valuation up here and there is tremendous risk to all risk-assets all at the same time. Cash and commodities are the only places to hide, along with currencies (of course).
Reply
2use timwest
2 years ago
Sadly i guess
Reply
timwest PRO 2use
2 years ago
The commodity of choice has been oil and oil stocks for the last month - and gold, and gold stocks. They have far outperformed the S&P. Care to do the analysis before I do?
Reply
2use timwest
2 years ago
Im already increasing gold exposure, and i don't dare to do pair analysis - i fear i would find self prophecies in them that won't make any benefit for anyone. I sure learn a lot on this website about this though :)
Reply
2use timwest
2 years ago
Also, what about materials? Silver, gold, metals? Emerging markets - what is your take on them?
Reply
Ideas Scripts Chart
United States
United Kingdom
India
España
Italia
Brasil
Россия
Türkiye
日本
한국
Home Stock Screener Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features House Rules Moderators For the WEB Widgets Stock Charting Library Priority Support Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Help & Wiki Twitter
Private Messages Chat Ideas Published Followers Following Priority Support Public Profile Profile Settings Billing Sign Out