207 6 4
The spread between the performance of OIH             and SPY             has been extreme for a couple of years now. OIH             has gone nowhere now for 8 years, since 2006 and the SPY             is up 48%.

The catalyst for this trade to unwind is simply the movement of funds away from the big-cap S&P500             stocks that have been lately making us all wonder how the market is staying up despite the big hits to technology and internet-related names. The generals are leading the army as the IWM             Russell 2000 index             is far from its highs. I think this is a time when it makes sense to be long the basic industries and short the overall index.

Keep in mind though, that I have a weekly buy signal on the SPY             with a 184 stop. Pairs trading these positions in a portfolio would mean letting go of the SPY             long position or cutting it down in size.

Risk tolerance - roughly 5% - potential return roughly 20% over 3-6 months.
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Is it me or are the latest ideas of yours Tim imply that stock indices are going down? I actually went to get some gold and raw materials today after seeing your charts
I'm extremely wary about the S&P500. I see the year being a down 10% year for the S&P. Nailing the exact day, week, month of the top is a challenge, but you can see all of my posts on SPY and DIA and see what I'm thinking. I try not to hedge at all and make specific forecasts with stops in price and time. So, I think this is a fools game chasing these levels of valuation up here and there is tremendous risk to all risk-assets all at the same time. Cash and commodities are the only places to hide, along with currencies (of course).
2use timwest
Sadly i guess
The commodity of choice has been oil and oil stocks for the last month - and gold, and gold stocks. They have far outperformed the S&P. Care to do the analysis before I do?
2use timwest
Im already increasing gold exposure, and i don't dare to do pair analysis - i fear i would find self prophecies in them that won't make any benefit for anyone. I sure learn a lot on this website about this though :)
2use timwest
Also, what about materials? Silver, gold, metals? Emerging markets - what is your take on them?
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