ORACALE (ORCL) Rally! Cycle 3 → $400, Eyes on Supercycle $6,000

🌀 ORACLE (ORCL) – Elliott Wave Supercycle Analysis | Smart Money & Fibonacci Confluence

🔭 Macro Perspective

Oracle’s long-term chart (NYSE: ORCL) showcases a powerful Supercycle (III) wave in motion — a multi-decade expansion phase fueled by institutional participation, structural growth, and technological innovation.
The internal Cycle waves (1–5) are clearly defined, with current price action positioned deep within Cycle Wave (3) — the strongest segment of this major bullish leg.

🟢 Supercycle Wave (I) (1987 – 2000)

• Elliott Behavior: The first grand impulsive advance, representing Oracle’s rise during the early software and database revolution.
  
• Fibonacci Structure: Wave (3) extended toward the 2.618× of Wave (1), typical of an early institutional growth wave.
  
• SMC Dynamics:Breaks of structure (BoS) at each impulsive stage.
  Liquidity sweeps before rallies — consistent smart money accumulation patterns.
  
• Fundamentals: Explosive earnings growth through enterprise software adoption and global market expansion.
  

💥 Conclusion: The dot-com peak in 2000 completed Supercycle (I).

🔵 Supercycle Wave (II) (2000 – 2002)

• Nature: The sharp, emotion-driven retracement following the tech bubble.
  
• Fibonacci Retracement: Retraced into the 0.236 zone of (I), providing the long-term discount region for accumulation.
  
• SMC Characteristics:Liquidity grab beneath 1998–1999 structure.
  Long accumulation base confirming institutional re-entry.
  
• Fundamentals: Oracle streamlined operations and built the groundwork for enterprise-level solutions.
  

🧱 Bottom: Wave (II) ended around 2002 — the base of today’s decades-long uptrend.

🟣 Supercycle Wave (III) (2002 – 2030s, ongoing)

This ongoing macro impulsive wave contains five internal Cycle Waves (1–5).

⚪ Cycle Wave (1) (2002 – 2019)

• Elliott Context: A powerful, sustained impulsive leg lasting nearly two decades.
  
• Structure: Clean five-wave advance with strong extensions during 2010–2019.
  
• Fibonacci Note: The move achieved near the 1.618× extension relative to its starting point.
  
• SMC Insight:Consistent higher highs and higher lows throughout the period.
  BoS continuation patterns confirming institutional markup.
  
• Fundamentals: Expansion of Oracle’s business model — cloud transition, data analytics, and enterprise software dominance.
  

📈 End: Cycle (1) peaked near 2019, completing the first internal impulsive leg of Supercycle (III).

🔵 Cycle Wave (2) (2019 – 2020)

• Nature: A sharp yet shallow correction that coincided with the global market decline (COVID crash).
  
• Fibonacci Retracement: Retraced around the 0.236–0.382 zone of Wave (1).
  
• SMC Dynamics:Liquidity sweep under 2018–2019 structure.
  Fast accumulation pattern — strong re-accumulation footprint.
  
• Fundamentals: Short-term market shock, but Oracle’s fundamentals remained intact and rebounded swiftly.
  

🧭 Conclusion: Cycle (2) ended in 2020, setting the foundation for the explosive ongoing Cycle (3) rally.

🟢 Cycle Wave (3) (2020 – ~2026, in progress)

• Elliott Context: The most powerful internal impulsive wave — currently unfolding.
  
• Target Zone: Projected to complete near $380–$400, expected around late 2025 to early 2026.
  
• Fibonacci Extension: The 2.618× extension of Wave (1) perfectly aligns near $400.
  
• SMC & Market Structure:Continuous BoS and HH–HL formations — clear institutional control.
  No macro distribution yet; structure remains intact.
  Liquidity inducements near highs suggest ongoing markup phase.
  
• Price Action: Aggressive impulses, shallow retracements, and orderly continuation patterns.
  
• Fundamentals:
  • Rapid expansion in Cloud Infrastructure (OCI), AI-driven services, and recurring revenue models.
  • Sustained EPS growth and improved margin performance support wave maturity.
    
  
  
  🚀 Expectation: Completion near $400 will likely trigger a Cycle (4) corrective structure before the final impulsive push.
  
  🟠 Cycle Wave (4) (Projected: 2026 – 2028)
  • Elliott Behavior: A corrective phase — retracing part of the strong Cycle (3) run.
    
  • Fibonacci Retracement: Expected correction into the 0.236–0.382 zone of Wave (3), roughly $200–$280.
    
  • SMC Insight:Break of structure (BoS) near top zones to induce liquidity.
    Re-accumulation base forming after liquidity sweep below key supports.
    
  • Market Psychology: Cooling from euphoria, consolidation, and rebalancing of valuations.
    
  • Fundamentals: Period of stabilization after several years of aggressive expansion.
    
  
  
  📉 Outlook: Likely forms the structural foundation for the next rally phase (Cycle 5).
  
  🟢 Cycle Wave (5) (Projected: 2028 – early 2030s)
  • Elliott Context: The final impulsive leg completing Supercycle (III).
    
  • Target Zone:Fibonacci 3.618× extension (~$900–$950) of Cycle (1).
    
  • SMC Structure:Final markup phase with strong BoS continuation patterns.
    Climax rallies as retail sentiment peaks.
    
  • Price Action: Parabolic trend, thin retracements, and expanding volatility.
    
  • Fundamentals: Oracle could cement its dominance in global data, AI, and enterprise infrastructure markets.
    
  
  
  💎 Completion: Cycle (5) will mark the end of Supercycle (III), leading into the long-term corrective Supercycle (IV).
  
  🔶 Supercycle Wave (IV) (Projected: 2030s – 2040s)
  • Nature: Major macro correction after decades of expansion.
    
  • Fibonacci Depth: Likely retraces into the 0.382–0.5 zone of (III).
    
  • SMC Behavior: Distribution → liquidity sweep → re-accumulation.
    
  • Market Context: Could align with macroeconomic tightening or sectoral rotation.
    
  
  
  📊 Purpose: To reset valuations and build energy for the final Supercycle (V).
  
  🟩 Supercycle Wave (V) (Projected: 2040s – 2050s)
  • Elliott Context: The final impulsive wave of Oracle’s century-long trend.
    
  • Fibonacci Target:3.618× expansion (~$6,000).
  • SMC Behavior: Final institutional markup followed by distribution and secular reversal.
    
  • Fundamentals: Could coincide with Oracle’s role as a global AI–data infrastructure leader.
    
  
  
  🚀 Legacy Wave: The culmination of decades of innovation and expansion.
  
  ⚙️ Macro Summary
  • Accumulation (1980s–1990s) – Smart money foundation.
    
  • Expansion (2000s–2020s) – Institutional markup phase.
    
  • Distribution (2030s) – Macro correction and rotation.
    
  • Re-accumulation (Post-2040s) – Long-term reset for future cycles.
    
  
  
  🧠 Technical & Fundamental Alignment
  
  ✨ Elliott Structure: Clear impulsive (I–V) sequence with macro rhythm.
  ✨ Fibonacci Confluence: $400 (2.618× of Wave 1) & $900 (3.618× of Wave 1).
  ✨ SMC: Institutional control with clean BoS → reaccumulation → continuation.
  ✨ Price Action: Aggressive bullish order flow with no macro distribution yet.
  ✨ Fundamentals: Oracle’s AI + Cloud strategy drives sustainable growth.
  
  🌍 Conclusion
  
  Oracle (ORCL) continues to trend within Supercycle (III) — the most powerful long-term wave.
  
  • Cycle Wave (3): In progress, targeting $380–$400 by end of 2025 / early 2026.
  • Cycle Wave (4): Anticipated retracement toward $200–$280 zone.
  • Cycle Wave (5): Final impulsive run toward $900+ into the early 2030s.
    
  
  
  📈 Macro Bias: Long-term bullish — institutional structure intact.
  📊 Short-term Outlook: Momentum strong but nearing Cycle 3 completion; prepare for corrective rotation.
  
  💬 Summary: Oracle’s price evolution beautifully mirrors its technological growth story — a near-perfect alignment of Elliott Wave symmetry, Smart Money structure, and fundamental strength. The completion of Cycle 3 near $400 will open the door to an ideal re-entry opportunity for the next macro leg higher.
  
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  💬 Respected traders and analysts!
  
  Your insights matter. Share your views, confirmations, or constructive criticism in the comments below. Let’s discuss ORCL’s structural evolution, Elliott Wave setup, and long-term Supercycle potential 🚀📈.
  
  — Team FIBCOS 💎