Why buy Palantir before it breaks out
- Big data firms are the new social media platforms that see massive revenue growth.
- The market needs to come to terms with the possibility that Palantir’s revenues can quintuple until FY 2025.
- As the market understands Palantir’s long-term revenue and growth opportunity, the stock will appreciate.
I think this is the next company that needs to be added to the group of FAANG stocks. Big data analytics is big business for
PLTR
as data volumes grow and more analytical capabilities are required to make sense of them. Palantir is set to grow revenues extremely fast over the next five years, and the stock is set to break out. Their software is mostly used to analyze data and develop solutions to complex problems for businesses and governments that have to manage through tons of data… Palantir's software and predictive analytics capabilities can help predict COVID-19 outbreaks, analyze performance data, fight crime, assist companies with the migration of IT systems, support law enforcement, solve supply chain problems and support effective risk management practices.
One of the biggest entities that collect data are governments. They have endless databases containing information about their citizens, which is also why the government business is an important cornerstone for Palantir to leverage its growth.
Since government contracts are a lucrative source of revenue for Palantir, and the firm collected 56% of its revenues or $610 million from its government customers in FY 2021. In the 1st quarter 2021, Palantir saw its government revenues grow by 76% Y/Y to $208m, and it could crack the $1b annual government revenue threshold by FY 2022.
Besides still not being profitable Palantir's revenues are growing fast and have increased 84% from FY 2018 to FY 2020.
Their own revenue guidance appears to be carefully formulated as the company is still in a phase in which it enjoys revenue growth rates approximating 50%. These rates will normalize with time, but Palantir is set for a golden future.
Revenues could grow from $1.1b in FY 2021 to $5-$6b over the next five years, assuming gradually declining growth rates, which are historically validated.
As times goes by and customers, in both commercial and government area, experience Palantir's software platform, they tend to spend more money, which makes it ultimatly a trend in itself Instead of just signing on new clients and scaling, Palantir clearly has the option to maximize the customer lifetime value by increasing revenues per customer, which it does.
Revenues per customer increased a massive 29% Y/Y to $8.1m in the 1st quarter, which attests to Palantir's strong organic growth capability.
(Source: Palantir)
Potential Risks:
Since profits are still a thing of the future we should rather value them over expected sales than actual net margins. Also because the Plattform itself is so well programmed it will needs less R&D spending.
Another risk for shareholders touches on the subject of dilution. Palantir, as most tech companies, issues a lot of stock for compensation packages, which dilutes shareholders. Palantir's outstanding number of shares increased 80% from FY 2018 to FY 2020 and continued to rise in the 1st quarter 2021.
When the market understands Palantirs full potential and their recurring revenues YaY and that a government focus is a strength, not a weakness. Once the market does that, PLTR should break out and revalue higher.