cas34310

Next Leg Down Likely Week of Aug 29

Short
cas34310 Updated   
NASDAQ:QQQ   Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Timing arrays gave June low perfectly; TQQQ position up 80%. Position is closed and my plan is to switch back to SQQQ shortly.

When/Where($):
- Now it's projecting a (probably choppy type distribution) top.
- As far as dates go the most probable candidates starting as early as next week August 22. First calendar week of Sept (week of Aug 29 - Sept 2) is next most probable and then week of September 19 thereafter.
- The election or the... multitude of issues regarding China may result in spikes and choppiness through October on a monthly time frame.
- A move this size should give multiple chances to enter on a daily time frame.
- Divergences galore. On every indicator and every time frame.
- Likely test of the 346.00 pivots which will almost certainly result in rejection (if we even make it there).
- The energy of this rally is low and will probably be too feeble to find support even if it pops out of the April resistance.
- Volatility will start spiking from next week to mid September and onwards.

Why/How:
- "Real" bottom likely won't be in until February. Not a straight down crash and lots of points to take profit and re-enter.
- There are a lot of gaps to fill below.
- We're sitting on a powder-keg of pivot machine guns at least on a weekly basis with no support on a weekly level.
- Volume is falling like a rock.
- Institutions are selling. Only buyer is retail fomo. Check smart money indicator to substantiate.
- Basically put volume is still high enough to force a squeeze (which is why the AI said this Friday would be a high probably: Lots of SPY puts at 400-430 for some reason lol).
- I assume the massive number of monthly puts expiring at the end of August is why it's suggesting a high first week of Sept.
- We're waiting for the bears that jumped in too early to get squeezed/stopped or and get demoralized/flip bullish.

This may be the most brutal leg down of this decline.

*Reminder that if you're using a zero commission trading platform and can afford to use bracket orders, place them with break even stops or just below the low of a 15-30 minute candle: Stop out, re-enter, and try again until the price gets moving. Move up or trail stops based on obvious pivots (daily, hourly, intraday etc).
*If you pay commission wait for a break of the trading range on a higher time frame (hourly or daily minimum. Weekly is even better). This should let you have some breathing room. Stops should go no lower than bottom of previous candle (ie trigger candle). Adjust position size for wider stops risk wise obviously.
*The previous highs and lows of this ticker involved shooting stars, hammers, or inside/outside reversals on the weekly/daily range. These are what you're looking for. Check the Week of July 11 candle for reference.

May the force be with you.
Comment:
We're currently below a weekly reversal. If we close below 324.8 that's all she wrote.
Comment:
Down we go.
Comment:
Account up 18%
Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.