r3anand

october outlook for nasdaq; high conviction trade !

Short
NASDAQ:QQQ   INVESCO QQQ TRUST
1. I've used independent forms of analysis to show a ~14% downside to the ~240 level
2. I want to EMPHASIZE that this move will most likely be news based; i.e. "no one could've seen it coming" but the charts speak for themselves
Comment: i am REVISING the supply zone to be 282-290 on the QQQ. still holding this position

Comments

I really agree with your 240 range. In fact I did my own analysis to identify the same around election time frame or beginning Nov. One more thing to notice is the extremely low volume on QQQ for the past few days when the price is rising 1% everyday... That is not a good sign. Kudos to you and glad someone is also thinking like me. Overall QQQ is bullish and that's when the fall will start :)
+2 Reply
Thank you and generally agree. QQQ at 291 so maybe double tap 303 then fall to 240? I have a big 270 PUT Nov 6.
+1 Reply
r3anand Gasdoc1974
@Gasdoc1974, yes unfortunately that seems like it
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There is one important difference between MA20 crossing MA50 downwards in March and recently. The price tested MA50 resistance and continue falling back then, but now it is trying (successfully for now) to stay above. Just being technical, I'm bearish too :) Thx
+1 Reply
r3anand Sultan-of-swing
@Sultan-of-swing, i was actually talking about the cross upwards in april which started this 5-6month uptrend but yes your point is definitely valid !
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Yes I noticed the same low volume gap ups, but high volume selloffs. That can never be bullish
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i am REVISING the supply zone to be 282-290 on the QQQ. still holding this position
Reply
Did you get stopped out today. Do you still think the scenario will happen or is a double top now the next likely scenario?
Reply
r3anand yatin88
@yatin88, so its seeming like the supply zone is 282-290 thus not yet convinced to close position. ALSO, since earnings start next week tuesday i'm going to wait to see the reaction as i expect a negative surprise
Reply
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