At the moment, the key factor determining the dynamics of the Russian currency is the inflow and outflow of money in Russian bonds. The current rubble appreciation is associated with a new influx of non-residents in GOV
Bonds. Wave analysis of Eliot showed that at the moment we are drawing A to ABC
(B is of a higher order), which means that the rubble will gradually strengthen. The correlation between RGBI
and RUB / USD
is more than 90%, making up a dependency model and substituting the potential values of the RUB / USD
index, it received that the rubble could reach 61-62 rubbles per dollar. The fact that the wave in wave A 5 turned out to be stretched is indicated by the analysis of relations. According to Eliot, in the case of a stretched fifth wave, the motion ratio is (1 + 3) / 5 = either 1/1, or 0.618, or 1.618, in this case the ratio is a drop (1 + 3) wave = -4.6%, and a drop in 5 wave -7.6%, so 7.6 / 4.6 = 1.602, 4.6 / 7.6 = 0.605, which is close to the golden ratio.