Rivian 'Dead Cat Bounce' Over?

I have been getting a lot of questions from followers about RIVN in recent weeks. One of the favorites of the 2021 EV stock craze the share price has done not performed well since the IPO. This recent very bullish move has gotten a lot of attention but I think it has come to an end.

Price Action
Like most of my setups I am looking at RIVN hitting a major 50% Retracement this one being from the downtrend starting in September 2022 through April 2023. That Resistance at 26.71 was hit yesterday and today's price action shows reluctance to test and break it. I have been looking for a pullback to this bull trend to its own 50% Retracement at around ~20 and it may be upon us.

The Trade
Earnings are coming up on August 8th. That sets up a nice window for monthly options of the August 18th expiration. Since 20 is the approximate pullback level it also makes for a proper strike. That means Aug23 20 Puts will be the choice to express the trade. If price breaks the recent high I may look to cut them as they should maintain their premium with earnings getting closer. I also do not typically hold through earnings but rather try to close the day before to avoid the 50/50 probability of the binary event.

The Narrative
I still see the occasional Rivian on the road but as of late I have become a Tesla Maxi. Tesla had record production and delivery for Q2 2023 but every other EV manufacturer is struggling according to recent reports. The market as a whole has enjoyed an optimistic bull run since March and is due for a pullback.

Comment:

Was a bit early but I often am. Yesterday got confirmation with a spike signal right at the Resistance level. It also makes it a false breakout and double top. I am more confident in the trade now than when I put it on.