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The Palantir of tradingA Palantir, if you did not know, is otherwise known as a crystal ball; a seeing stone. It was what Saruman used in Lord of the Rings to "see" and that ultimately led to his corruption by Sauron. I've seen this stock corrupt the career of aspiring traders...
I was asked my advice on Palantir NASDAQ:PLTR . I don't like to give "advice" on what for other traders to do... but I will say what I have done, what I am doing, and tell you a story that hopefully help traders be better.
I bought PLTR at an average price of about $9/share. Great! Not really, it was July 2022, and I bagheld all the way down to $6: a -33% unrealized loss over about a year of time. But what I had done was only purchased 200 shares. My position was relatively small; it didn't bother me. I slept just fine.
I was encouraged to buy PLTR by a good trading buddy. We would talk and trade every day for years since the pandemic. He was super bullish on this stock and I really bought it and held it in solidarity with my friend.
Then in May 2023 the stock finally took off. I had my shares and my friend traded PLTR options. However, they were short duration options. In the May - August rally he multiplied his account many times. More money than he had ever had in his young life. Things were going great. He was finally RIGHT! But then...
The stock stopped moving. Unfortunately, my friend had taken his success and tried to repeat it. Options need movement. PLTR did not move enough. He lost it all. He left our group and quit trading altogether...
...just before the August 2024 rally.
If you like the company, OWN THE SHARES
Since the pandemic I have tried my best to educate traders that the short term, gambler's mentality inherent in options is a path to disaster for the vast majority of traders. Patience. It's hard but it pays.
I still have my shares. They are up big. They are pulling back, sure. But I don't care. I was small, I have a very low buy price, and I can just wait.
Now that PLTR has moved though... inevitably people want it. Since the start of the year I've been asked repeatedly about buying it. What I tell people is that any tech or volatile stock like this WILL have AT LEAST a -50% (usually more) pullback. Be patient. I do not get interested until that happens. Even then it still may get even cheaper.
Be patient.
Trade wisely. 
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Microstrategy Enters "The Valley of Risk"A term I have coined, "The Valley of Risk", describes a price chart which has had a prior very strong bullish trend, pulls back to its 50% Retracement Support, and then fails to hold it... entering a long, grinding, bearish deflation which coincides with the heavy negative emotion being felt by those still holding the bag.
Inside the "Valley of Risk" nothing one does is correct:
If you sell... it will bottom and rally
If you buy... it will continue down
If you baghold... it will continue to go down until you cannot stand it and #1
This is just a pattern of human emotion being reflected on a price chart... which is what price charts ultimately are. It is best to avoid going into the Valley of Risk and have strict rules against bagholding. Deploy your capital elsewhere that there is a better potential rate of return.
When I teach about this concept I always look back to Zillow NASDAQ:Z . This was a stock I bought "on a dip" at 111 and made the right decision to sell my position at a loss at 102 when the stock price violated the 50% Support. This allowed me to avoid the horrible Earnings miss gap and the final -74% depreciation. My position still would not have recovered as of writing.
As I published months ago, it became clear to me that the over exuberance and fancy financial buzz words being thrown around about NASDAQ:MSTR were signs of a ponzi about to collapse. Well, the "Bitcoin nuclear reactor" has cooled and the leverage baked into Microstrategy would be its downfall. That has now come to pass. There are some other interesting elements of price action which have been textbook in this decline that I want to talk about in this post.
The 50% Retracement:
The operative level for the last 3 months has been 328. This is the 50% Retracement of the YOLO rally. In the pullback from the ATH 440 became the 50% Retracement Resistance.
The Ichimoku Cloud Breakout Confirmed:
The other textbook setup was when the Ichimoku Cloud Breakout was confirmed by the Lagging Span entering clear bearish space after price had exited the cloud. Interestingly, this happened at the same exact day as Bitcoin; last Friday. You can read more about this strategy and my 14 year study of how effective it is in my recent Ideas:
So what now?
That is the eternal question of "The Valley of Risk". There is never a good answer because the technical supports have been broken.
Personally though I need to answer this question for my bearish positions. The most logical point to look would be the Volume Profile POC at 165. However, Microstrategy is going to move concurrent to Bitcoin itself and knowing the past bearish cycle patterns this week, through brutal, will find a bottom. I do not believe it will be the final bottom only that price may hesitate at some point for perhaps even a month.
My trade management
This week I will be selling premium against my long Puts, which go out to 2027, to offset my Theta while still remaining short Delta. 
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