Russel 2000 Weekly Volatility Forecast 26-30 September

CME_MINI:RTY1!   E-Mini Russell 2000 Index Futures
Russel 2000 Weekly Volatility Forecast 26-30 September

Currently our volatility for Russel is at 4.3%, increasing from 3.76% last week, located on 70th percentile, placing us in a high volatility environment

Based on the previous calculations, there is currently a 16.7% chance that the asset is going to break the channel(the weekly candle it will close above/below)
TOP 1746
BOT 1620

At the same time, based on the previous calculations:
- There is a 28% chance that the previous high from last week of 1830 is going to be touched
- There is a 70% chance that the previous low from last week 1660 is going to be touched
We can deduct that we have a much higher probability to have a continuation of bearish candle than bullish .

On average the weekly candle when the asset was located around this percentile are 2.9% for bull candles and 2.95% for the bear candles from the opening price.

From the fundamental point of view, news that can affect this asset price this week:
- Core Durable release, CB Consumer confidence and Powell Speech for Tuesday 27 Sep
- Powell Speech for Wednesday 28 Sep
- US GDP and Jobless Claims coming on Thursday 29 Sep
- Core PCE on Friday 29 Sep

Overall I believe for this week there is higher chance due to the overall global activity to have another bearish weekly candle.


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