joachim.snellings

Decade long structure emerging on the Silver chart

Long
TVC:SILVER   CFDs on Silver (US$ / OZ)
It is interesting to study the Production/ Accumulation/Distribution /Industrial Demand as well. Silver seems to hit a breaching point where physical prices have a premium about +45% for buying it and +20% for selling pure silver bullion coins. Troy oz./oz. is about 1.10, which should reflect a recomended trading price of 25.4$ per troy oune. Anybody able to buy at these prices?

Another interesting peak that was reached lately is the Gold/Silver Ratio reaching +104 lvl's, an increadable bias for gold if you look at the ratio that existed about 100 years ago, which is 10. . In less then 6 months time this ratio is today +70. This is a technical indicator for a strong bear legg starting a decade long correction for the multi decade long bull market in favour of Gold . This is the first leg down, and there is a lot of space for continued correction, bringing the price to a 'recommended equilibrium'.

Platinum as wel is comming back from an all time low Platinum to gold ratio 0.39 to the 0.6. Interestingly the platinum price is not having a ticker as far as I now that goes back for 100 years, which is the scale that the trend is carrying apparently for multiple precious metals. Chemistry table books presenting value of the pure element refer to a rule of tumb for pricing, that refered to the relative abundance of those elements before the 80's, here the Platinum over Gold ratio is documented to be 2x over multiple years, presumingly a good rule of tumb ratio of price to handle as historical mean.

It's becoming clear that there is some mechanism (or a superposition of multiple mechanisms) enables the overrepresentation of 'exchangeble silver tickets'. And it is difficult to find trustworthy data on the abundance of each element to date. Especially yearly mining reports giving estimeates that are discripant over 10 years, look at a mining report in 1992,2002;2012,2022 and the quality of these estimates seem to be worthless for what the physical reality could represent. Still in search for a good dataset, one could do a basic maximum physical element estimate by taking the continental crust elementary abundance calculation on the earth being a perfect sphere, having about 40% continental crust on it's surface, the maximal depth of a mine is one in south-africa, reaching 4km deep, however the mean depth of a mine will like be less than a km deep. you could go further and eliminate regions that are definetly not minable or mined (sahara, himalaya mountains, ..) but this is in my opinion the best approach to find the global maxima for the elements that are available on our beatiful planet.
Comment:
For everybody out there, thank you for your attention on this idea. It is good to know that there is so much interest in the silver chart today. So to remain clear, I'm trying to discuss the physical price of silver on this chart, and here on tradingview. I'm not buying any paper form of silver, I'm buying the physical silver at another price.

That is in fact the main purpose of why this is out there, and I thank you for the thumbs, and all of the comments. The point remains that if I wish to buy a silver troy ounce today in Germany, I could buy to buy the respected Kruggerand for 28.55€ that is currently while writing about 30$. That is interesting, because I can sell as well for 27.36€ which is 6% more dollars right now. Look at Ishares physical silver and the price is out of balance, how much days are they normally in balance, when are they out of balance, is a question, I think it is an interesting one. N.B. keep in mind that it is a troy ounce so 10% more mass. Following plan, everybody just uses the more logical metric system. But one crime at the time, we discuss silver only here.

Can somebody provide the silver supply/shortage of the estimates for 2022? That is homework I leave here.

So what could I do if I want to make quick money, indeed buy the current CFDs on silver. But this can go to 0 as oil did, and the physical price is indeed an interesting valid reason to question the price. Moreover, fibonacci is still in play.


Yesyes, unclear. I don't aspire my fame in making tradingview charts.

Great to have you all here.

Happy trading,
J.
Comment:
And why not sell it for 230$,convince me that it is otherwise so.

Comment:
Inflation rates: top) $ ; bottom) €

Fomo Joe