With about a day left before the candle stick closes... one could argue we have been in a bear market the last 6 months, and we have technically. However when most were bearish they were talking about a major cycle downturn, ie: ending of the 2020-2021 over all crypto bull cycle. This wasn't true till Bitcoin breaks, closes below and gets rejected by the 100 W.
I've been adjusting the last few months, mostly staking Solana, still have a lot in NFTs, but any NFTs I've been selling, I've placed into stablecoins.
Now BTC has closed below the 100 W before and recovered: Nov 2019, and Mar: 2020. However this break below follows a parabolic rise and then a double top on Bitcoin including top signals in Mar of 2020 (which I ignored) the Mayer Multiple and NVT showed top signs, but alas I sold everything else at the top except for Bitcoin. However my BTC position at the time wasn't as largest as ETH or SOL.
It's important to watch the next several weeks and months... the one hope left imho for BTC is that this cycle is more similar to the 2013 cycle, where there was a top in Dec 2013 and a bottom in Jan of 2015 or in ETH's case a top in Jun 2016 and bottom in Dec 2016 then the bull market continued. Conditions are much diff this time and coins like ETH have held up better than BTC, not just because of smaller marketcap dynamics, but because of the new NFT asset class. We do not know what a large bear cycle looks like in NFTs yet. When comparing price action for NFTs it's already had a 2013 and a 2017 cycle inside of under a year! Now atm, some BlueChips still have massively high floor prices while others are stable or slowly decreasing.
I've been adjusting the last few months, mostly staking Solana, still have a lot in NFTs, but any NFTs I've been selling, I've placed into stablecoins.
Now BTC has closed below the 100 W before and recovered: Nov 2019, and Mar: 2020. However this break below follows a parabolic rise and then a double top on Bitcoin including top signals in Mar of 2020 (which I ignored) the Mayer Multiple and NVT showed top signs, but alas I sold everything else at the top except for Bitcoin. However my BTC position at the time wasn't as largest as ETH or SOL.
It's important to watch the next several weeks and months... the one hope left imho for BTC is that this cycle is more similar to the 2013 cycle, where there was a top in Dec 2013 and a bottom in Jan of 2015 or in ETH's case a top in Jun 2016 and bottom in Dec 2016 then the bull market continued. Conditions are much diff this time and coins like ETH have held up better than BTC, not just because of smaller marketcap dynamics, but because of the new NFT asset class. We do not know what a large bear cycle looks like in NFTs yet. When comparing price action for NFTs it's already had a 2013 and a 2017 cycle inside of under a year! Now atm, some BlueChips still have massively high floor prices while others are stable or slowly decreasing.
Comment:
May 10th
SOL 1H / BTC daily
Daily BTC all the oscillators showing massive weakness, here we see the Stochastic, RSI and MACD super depressed, RSI and MACD can't flip over no strength from bulls. I rare to see the Stochastic this beat down as well. Have not re-entered any position yet, was tempted too on Solana at $69, but couldn't even do it for the luls.
SOL 1H / BTC daily
Daily BTC all the oscillators showing massive weakness, here we see the Stochastic, RSI and MACD super depressed, RSI and MACD can't flip over no strength from bulls. I rare to see the Stochastic this beat down as well. Have not re-entered any position yet, was tempted too on Solana at $69, but couldn't even do it for the luls.
Comment:
SOL/ETH/BTC continuing down, imho the big capitulation candle sticks haven't printed yet...
Comment:
Back in all cash positions, was playing a short term relief rally, it was going good for a few days, but didn't hold bullish momentum. Turned over, a H&S formed on BTC 4 hr. Now my red lines on BTC and ETH broke, exited all ETH and SOL positions. No BTC positions as I don't hold BTC except for in my IRA.
Comment:
Will see you guys with BTC back at $25k before reassessing.
Comment:
The 12HR looks bad on all coins, expecting a return to 25k, will play any bounce there as a day trade, then continue to wait till the 200 week moving average on BTC before re-entering full positions on ETH and SOL.
Comment:
BTC almost back to the 200 week, and it's going under it
1H Red and Yellow Xs all over: