This is a logarithmic daily line chart of solana. The logarithmic chart function is used to show the relationship of percentage change rather than just showing the change in dollar amount. Nobody cares if a $100 asset goes up by $1.00 but they definately care if a HKEX:2 asset goes up by one dollar.
It is for this reason we use the log function as it is the change in percentage of value and time that drives the decision making process of buying and selling. The pupose of this chart is to show the equalities that exisit between time vs change of percent. In short it is a representation of how much time or change in percentage of value is necessary to push the average person to buy and sell. What is driving these decisions is recorded in past price action.
The average person does not buy the bottom as there is no momentum and fear is at all time high. Volume is very low and price changes are therefore very small. Compare this to when the market is at max fever and the average person is now looking to buy which leads to an increase in volume and very fast and large price changes.
Using these principles and past price action of an asset we can make some general assumptions about the future.
What assumptions can we make? We can assume that the amount of time it takes OR the percentage change it takes buyers and sellers to react will remain relatively the same over time.
Using these averages we are NOT able to predict price and time but we can predict what the market will react to. EX: If an asset pumps 10% and we see repeatedly that a 10% pump leads to a 10 day cool off before pumping again we can use this data to make inferences about the future.
To measure this and project into the future we use simple geometry.
Again this is not to make specific price and time calls. It is to show at what price levels we can expect to see a reaction based on how buyers and sellers reacted to similar percentage changes from the past. Using this method we can also see the average amount of time it takes to get a reaction from buyers and sellers.
In regards to Sol the facts are simple. The network launched prematurely and goes down frequently and coupled with the massive sell off from FTX investors have take a double does of price decline.
With that said Solana is far from a dead project and every thing in the above sentence is represented in the price chart. When the network goes down and sparks a sell off it is part of the past price action. When FTX bought and then dumped a massive amount of sol again it is part of the past price action.
The chart is the finally culmination of ALL buying and selling.
High target for SOL $1000.00
Personally I believe these valuations are rediculous. So why such high targets? The answer is simple: market mania coupled with inflation.
Each point where an angle hits the outer edge of the circle we have a price level and time cycle that buyers and sellers have repeatedly responded to in the past. Price may or may not reach these points at the same time but if price reaches the time line or the price expect a reaction.
The circle should be perfectly fit inside the square but if you adjust the price or time bar on the chart it will lose its aspect ration. If the circle is not inside the square adjust the price bar until it fits.
It is for this reason we use the log function as it is the change in percentage of value and time that drives the decision making process of buying and selling. The pupose of this chart is to show the equalities that exisit between time vs change of percent. In short it is a representation of how much time or change in percentage of value is necessary to push the average person to buy and sell. What is driving these decisions is recorded in past price action.
The average person does not buy the bottom as there is no momentum and fear is at all time high. Volume is very low and price changes are therefore very small. Compare this to when the market is at max fever and the average person is now looking to buy which leads to an increase in volume and very fast and large price changes.
Using these principles and past price action of an asset we can make some general assumptions about the future.
What assumptions can we make? We can assume that the amount of time it takes OR the percentage change it takes buyers and sellers to react will remain relatively the same over time.
Using these averages we are NOT able to predict price and time but we can predict what the market will react to. EX: If an asset pumps 10% and we see repeatedly that a 10% pump leads to a 10 day cool off before pumping again we can use this data to make inferences about the future.
To measure this and project into the future we use simple geometry.
Again this is not to make specific price and time calls. It is to show at what price levels we can expect to see a reaction based on how buyers and sellers reacted to similar percentage changes from the past. Using this method we can also see the average amount of time it takes to get a reaction from buyers and sellers.
In regards to Sol the facts are simple. The network launched prematurely and goes down frequently and coupled with the massive sell off from FTX investors have take a double does of price decline.
With that said Solana is far from a dead project and every thing in the above sentence is represented in the price chart. When the network goes down and sparks a sell off it is part of the past price action. When FTX bought and then dumped a massive amount of sol again it is part of the past price action.
The chart is the finally culmination of ALL buying and selling.
High target for SOL $1000.00
Personally I believe these valuations are rediculous. So why such high targets? The answer is simple: market mania coupled with inflation.
Each point where an angle hits the outer edge of the circle we have a price level and time cycle that buyers and sellers have repeatedly responded to in the past. Price may or may not reach these points at the same time but if price reaches the time line or the price expect a reaction.
The circle should be perfectly fit inside the square but if you adjust the price or time bar on the chart it will lose its aspect ration. If the circle is not inside the square adjust the price bar until it fits.
Comment:
likely still valid and either putting in a sigificant top or headed to the higher targets price action over the next weeks or so should give a good indication of macro rejection or continuation.
