I posted recently about how the top stocks leading the market is a persistent trend, and not an anomaly. If the market continues for a strong finish to 2023 (which would be consistent with seasonality and a third year of a presidential cycle), investors late to join recovery from August & September seasonal lows and those currently being short squeezed may feel priced out of the top 7.
A growth alternative that performs well independent of the relationship between the top stocks and the rest of the market is
SPGP
Investco's growth at a reasonable price ETF. Thanks to @westringaaron for introducing me to this one!
In the above chart we see a one year perspective of the mag 7 in teal and the SPS minus the mag 7 in blue, with SPGP steadily performing in between. SPGP recently fell below its 200 WMA (purple) and just recovered its 50 EMA (green). Note the cross over on the leading MACD, followed by a cross over of the quadratic MACD, and proximity to a cross over of the 5 period and 35 period relative strength to the SPX. The last two times that we saw this setup SPGP experienced a 11-13% upward movement. The seasonality table below tells us that October and November are historically 2 of he 3 highest performing months of the year for SPGP.
The setup:
Fibonacci levels from the retrace throughout 2022, the current geometric range of movement, Fibonacci time zone from the breakdown of the February high, and key anchored VWAPs (to the prior all time high, 2022 low, and key values in the current geometric range of movement) give us additional confluence for this setup:
Note the next fib time zone at the beginning of January aligns to the end of the measured range. This is likely to be adjacent to some type of change in trend.
A growth alternative that performs well independent of the relationship between the top stocks and the rest of the market is
SPGP
Investco's growth at a reasonable price ETF. Thanks to @westringaaron for introducing me to this one!
In the above chart we see a one year perspective of the mag 7 in teal and the SPS minus the mag 7 in blue, with SPGP steadily performing in between. SPGP recently fell below its 200 WMA (purple) and just recovered its 50 EMA (green). Note the cross over on the leading MACD, followed by a cross over of the quadratic MACD, and proximity to a cross over of the 5 period and 35 period relative strength to the SPX. The last two times that we saw this setup SPGP experienced a 11-13% upward movement. The seasonality table below tells us that October and November are historically 2 of he 3 highest performing months of the year for SPGP.
The setup:
Fibonacci levels from the retrace throughout 2022, the current geometric range of movement, Fibonacci time zone from the breakdown of the February high, and key anchored VWAPs (to the prior all time high, 2022 low, and key values in the current geometric range of movement) give us additional confluence for this setup:
- Entry at the current level
- TP between $97-100 - confluence with prior ATH, the top of the measured range, the price movement from the prior instances of MACD and relative strength cross overs, and the 1.618 fib extension.
- SL ~$88 aligns to the bottom of the measured range and is directionally where the VWAPs from the ATH and the 2022 low are headed.
Note the next fib time zone at the beginning of January aligns to the end of the measured range. This is likely to be adjacent to some type of change in trend.