I started a position on $SPLK towards the end of day due to some really nice pattern. It had recently broke out of it's 8 month base and consolidated above the $142 area. After holding support at $142, $SPLK made a nice flag pattern and rose near highs today. $SPLK is also pivoting off the 21 EMA which is always a strong bullish sign. Being the first flag after breaking to new highs, this could be the initiation of a new trend which $SPLK has the potential to run to $200. My entry on the trade was $153.57 with a tight stop loss at the $151 area. My stop loss was based on a 30m timeframe trend break. The reasoning behind the tight stop is that I expect this stock to immediately rise in price or even gap up tomorrow. My target on the trade is $170.
On a side note, I am being cautionary over the overall state of the market due to possible war with Iran. Any news catalyst that could hint to a war (Aggression from Iran, Trump Tweets, Etc) could drop this market at any moment. Although the effects of war on the market on the longer term is usually minimal, the short term effects could cause me to stop out of my position. If I see a change in market conditions, I plan to exit this trade immediately.
On a side note, I am being cautionary over the overall state of the market due to possible war with Iran. Any news catalyst that could hint to a war (Aggression from Iran, Trump Tweets, Etc) could drop this market at any moment. Although the effects of war on the market on the longer term is usually minimal, the short term effects could cause me to stop out of my position. If I see a change in market conditions, I plan to exit this trade immediately.
Comment:
$SPLK is down near $148 after hours following reports that Iran missile striked a US base in Iraq. S&P Futures are currently down near 1.5%. Although the gap down tomorrow looks to be way past my initial stop-loss, this is the only long position I have on and the amount of risk is still within expectations. I am more glad that I chose to not start any new positions today.
Comment:
Fortunately, S&P Futures snapped back this morning and I did not get stopped out of this position yet. This is a crazy market right now and I am still being careful.
Trade closed manually:
Late afternoon, further developments with Iran war has forced me to play some defense and close this position. Following my gameplan to exit this trade, taking the small 0.5R profit and walking away.
Comment:
In hindsight, my premature closure of this position was a mistake. I was too sensitive to news based noise and closed a still valid position. I should have instead took profits or move up my stop loss. Lesson learned.