proxynoorigin

SPX analog comparison - Monthly vs Weekly

SPCFD:SPX   S&P 500 Index
While conducting my trend strength analysis of the $SPX on the weekly timeframe , I found myself going down the rabbit hole, as usual, of comparing larger (multi-weekly, monthly, multi-monthly) longer term timeframes. Though they do provide a broad perspective of large market dynamics in motion, their benefits are minimal, if any, to my swing trading. Thus I mostly consider them to be chart puzzles for the mind. That said I do occasionally come across some interesting analogs that exhibit striking similitude to one another. I think this qualifies as one.

The left is a chart set at a 2 month period (roughly '98-'15) compared to, on the right, the 1 week time period chart (roughly '17 - present).

Included with the charts are a few technical indicators for combined analysis. They assist in painting the overall picture of price movement into identifiable patterns and help identify analogous structures.

Going forward...
If weekly price fluctuations were to follow a similar overall movement, as the larger Monthly analog, then could see would pull back to the weekly 20ema and likely have some intra-day drops to the weekly 50ema.

That would mean price retesting the 2715-2645 zone, sometime over then next 1-3 months... and longer term (roughly fall/winter 2019) price would need to continue moving higher towards the 3000-3200 level.

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