We currently have a and considering the , we will probably hit a triple top.
What is interesting to note is the recent $3 trillion aid package did not have an extremely positive effect on the market, unlike those previously.
Looking at the we see that the appetite is diminishing, meaning the extremely days are losing their power.
is neutral suggesting a potential turn-around.
Finally, the KST indication is crossing over at the suggesting the market is running out of steam.
At some point, the market participants will realize that there is a serious economic decline ahead.
My guess is a triple top, decline, panic selling, and another bottom.
“You will get business failures on a grand scale.” So declared James Bullard, president of the Bank of St Louis, on May 12th. Peter Orszag, a former official in Barack Obama’s White House and now with Lazard , an investment bank, warned that the American economy could face “a significant risk of cascading bankruptcies”.
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Overhead resistance at 3,000 (triple top) is holding strong, but for how long? A strong breakthrough here and I am lonnnnng.
Psychological Pivot Point.
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While today was extremely bullish, it was well outside the trend and will only really affect longer term levels if the bullishness continues for the week without a drastic pull back.
Outside of TA, the next few months has much more potential downside in the market than upside. The big 'winners' of COVID are already overinflated and overbought by most indicators. Today was first day we saw widespread buying in mid/small caps. How long will that last with the latest estimates saying 40% of small businesses will go under due to the knock on economic affects of the crisis? How long will investors be okay with paying premium for stocks that have horrible earnings and horrible outlooks in the middle of a credit crisis?
Meanwhile treasury yields are still going sideways, not agreeing with bull thesis. Emerging markets still hammered and not agreeing with bull thesis. Russell 2000 still hammered and not agreeing with bull thesis. Economy crippled and not agreeing with bull thesis... but 2nd quarter GDP doesn't start coming out until July. Maybe we can rally another month?
This is insanity, we're going to run right back up to another crash.