timwest

S&P500 INDEX - WEEKLY/ANNUAL BOX - FORECASTS FOR 2015

INDEX:SPX   S&P 500 Index
602 14 10
What do you think of these 2015 Year-End Forecasts by Major Financial Institutions?

I boxed in the annual ranges back to 1998 so you could see the forecasts in their proper perspective.

The green boxes are years with "higher highs" and "higher lows" than the year before.
The red boxes are years with "lower lows" and "lower highs" than the year before.
The black/gray box is a year with a "lower high" and "higher low" (also known as an "inside year").

Note how we haven't had and "outside year" in a long time, so I might be tempted to look for that to happen. A higher high AND a lower low. A rally over 2075 (the current high for the year) and then a drop under 1738.

I will collect more forecasts and plot them for us all to see.

Click "agree" if you agree we will end up in the blue box at year-end 2015.

If you are right at the end of 2015 I will send you $1 worth of bitcoin from my personal account.

Tim

9:31AM EST 12/3/2014
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As 2015 is the third year of US presidency in office, the 4 years cycle suggest the S&P finishing higher than 2014.
Reply
chartmojo PRO
2 years ago
I think the general call is for rate hike mid 2015...which will probably correspond to your blue area...increased volatility starting in May (ish) ...and probable market roll over Juneish....at that time I'll be looking to go long vix related instruments as a background trade
+1 Reply
Algokid PRO
2 years ago
I expect mid to high single digit return for 2015 , 7% to 9 %
Reply
2use
2 years ago
Where does one find Agree? Also, is it me or was the previous streak also 5 greens?
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timwest PRO 2use
2 years ago
The "thumbs up" button.
Reply
Chukkala
2 years ago
Agree
Reply
GaritLin Chukkala
2 years ago
agree
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AlphaxRx
2 years ago
That's a billion dollar question. That demands a billion dollar bitcoin or whatever the alternative is. =)
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rosecasanova
2 years ago
I am bullish for at least most of 2015 so I agree.
Reply
eran.arad
2 years ago
2015 - the year of the crash.
Reply
timwest PRO
2 years ago
Estimate labeled "USD" = UBS (typo from my source)
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LastBattle
2 years ago
2100 top for me, slightly above the previous one.
Reply
timwest PRO
a year ago
So far - every single forecast is too high. I don't know that there is a specific reason to sell equities other than general overvaluation. Given that bonds are overvalued AND stocks are overvalued, it strikes me that people will not know what to do except to hold on to both as cash or commodities or something else slowly crawls ahead of the returns. Time will tell. The odds are looking ever so much more in favor of being "out of stocks and out of bonds" for the next year or two. July 6, 2015 4:26PM EST 2066 SP500.
+2 Reply
Justiceisfalse timwest
a year ago
In a scenario where people are both out of stocks and bonds, where in your opinion would money flow?
Reply
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