Sand P Correction Looming? for TVC:SPX by DaddySawbucks

Chart says all. It's a bear rally, struggled to second top climbing up underside of TL, broke below again.

Headed lower IMO. I shorted the rally back to close gap (an incomplete gapfill but got close). Next session might bring a major breakdown.
Of course a reaction rally is always possible; short the rallies.

Not investing advice; trade at your own risk; GLTA!

Comment:

Getting a typical reaction bounce to first wave in selloff; resist at 3250, 3280; if that breaks up expect close the gap at 3330 before rollover; nice story here:

Comment:

Bearish... one-day reaction and lower again; more pressure after FOMC IMO

Order cancelled:

It holds just at / above the pitchfork TL; there is strength in small caps, RUT not selling, selling today modest overall, ofc it might crack after Fed but more vaccine happy news and a Fed policy statement on QE could spark another massive rally... there is an inverted H&S in some indexes... R/R is poor IMO, closed out all positions on the early AM sell. Bounce from lower TL back to center Red line would close the 24 Feb gap at this juncture, that gap is like a price magnet... risk offed, watching.

Comment:

Look to re-enter shorts Weds around FOMC; Aug can get real choppy IMO

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Shorted QQQ and SPY in Aug contracts, $8 bear spreads short the Friday 31 weeklies. Not whole hog; 10 QQQ 260P and 8 SPY 322P spreads. Bought 2k SQQQ as well.

Looking at VIX bull spreads, waiting on the FOMC for those. GLTA!

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Closed bear spreads in the Am gap; trading well under the blue tine of fork; it's Bear. Short the rallies!

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Shorted the gapfill heavy. Didn't exactly fill gap; but SP rallied above Weds low, hence technically satisfied for a fill. Same with DJI; rally to the previous low price; ofc NQ FOMO MOMO drove it into the green, I shorted it all! GLTA

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Another Hanging man in the 4h and now it trades under the TL. Shorting more, added UVXY Aug 14 $26 calls. Cheap VIX play IMO. These were $5 at open now $2.80.

Comment:

Intraday H&S on retrace rally in all major indices, clearest seen in DJI. Gonna sell IMO

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Late update; I covered my short puts for pennies, rolled my long legs up and added more, then waited an hour and took it to the bank in the money. Made bank off every position, RUT sold hardest. At EOD re-entered shorts on rally, prices near ATH and at strong Resistance. Not a big pos, ten bear spreads each on four major indexes.

Comment:

Exhaustion gap IMO... added to my spreads, rolled the short legs up and took 97c on dollar puts. QQQ been to 269 many times now, it could break through but will need more than 4 megacaps to lift it above 20 IMO; bought Sep 11 270P on QQQ, short the weeklies in $7 spread.

SPX touched 3300; so close to fill that gap IMO gonna see 3330 Tues and all down hill after...

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Filled the 24 Feb Gap!! Short awayy!!!

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Buffet indicator >140 is extreme high risk for equities... did this in Feb just before the break.

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Closed pos on morning pullback, IMo it's not ready to sell yet, could extend this grindy rally to a double top before rollover.

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Re-entered shorts on the morning rally and added on the retrace, in the four major indexes, September bear spreads short the Friday Aug 7 dailies.

Comment:

Euphoric phase; probly gap up again Friday to double top then collapse next week...

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Friday PM and the indexes form a bull flag, it's a declining wedge; closed out everything over weekend. Learned from last weekend lol. Don't much care if it gaps down I'll miss it, most likely gonna gap UP again IMO.

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Closed everything, longs, shorts, kids college funds, all in cash. probly gonna get an ATH >3400 imo, pure gamble at this price on either side.

Big short in October for 3 nov Biden upset imo; Donald really fubar'd the crisis, utter fail

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aug first week = wave 3 of final thrust, no shortz yet imo; soon!

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IMO internals point to distribution phase, soon. Shorting QQQ / DIA / SPY. Holding off on IWM as small caps been really bullish, look to short at 160.

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Big bear flag on DJI; Sand P banging on 3360 at resistance; rotation out of NQ into small caps and cyclicals: a finishing move before a break IMO.

Added to shorts on QQQ, SPY; holding DIA bear spreads in 11 Sep contracts.

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IMO prudence in order; because of odd divergence and mixed markets with cyclical sector rotation, was able to squeak out a small gain on the shorts, QQQ sold hard in first ten minutes! IMO we gonna see higher on DJI, the gap from 24 Feb at 28800 is likely target. Smart money buying dividend-paying blue chips and dumping FAANGs. IWM moving up to close gap, not shorting again until they do (unless QQQ!). GLTA!

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Shorted the gap up on 08/12 and added on rally. DJI, RUT not confirming this move- all FAANG FOMO; real buying panic mid-morning...

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Added and shorted weeklies. DJI had a small gapfill, not happening in NQ/SPX. Ferocious MOMO. Buy panic to be followed by sell panic IMO. Fade the gap didnt play today which is why I never buy weeklies to do that!

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Closed on the morning gap down and re-entered shorts at higher strikes on the lift; in QQQ 273P, SPY 338P, Sep 11 series. SHort Friday's dailes in $3 spreads.

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Tops take some time to consolidate before they rollover. This one might go on for a few more days or even a week. Rollover on or about 19/20 Aug IMO. Loading positions and hedging on short dailies.

We never know exactly when it will go off, just gotta be in there waiting. Weds PM was a warning bell.

When the selling starts it will go off hard and fast IMO, be ready. Waiting is the hardest part!

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Price eases in PM trade; watch the pitchfork TL, break under 3360 crosses the blue line, was supported on 8/11.

Holding short!

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Starts to look Bearish, rejecting from double-double top: 8/11-13 looking like 2/13-19; NQ peaked on 8/07 and again to same price 8/13... rollover imminent IMO

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Closed short legs on the early opening price lift and closed half long put leg positions on the midmorning sell. Holding ten each bear spreads on SPY / QQQ over weekend.

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Nice little sell so I closed after all, looks like SPY is stubbornly Bullish undertone, NQ sold so I took what the market gave me and look forward to a worry-free weekend. Cheers!

Comment:

NB: QQQ makes a bull flag, it's wedging down to around 271; could pop again Monday, R/R shorting here is poor IMO

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See how price crawls up the lower TL, clings to that thin blue line ffs; IMO could bull to 3440 at next R.
Be cautious!

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Shorted the bear flags EOD in QQQ, SPY. Bear spreads with big credits on short legs, just in case... GLTA

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General thoughts mulling over Sunday evening, futures modestly green, let's see if we get a new ATH this week; short the rallies from here IMO.

Watch RUT to see if it gives 1:1 recovery, still well below the last high of 1697 on 21 Feb and 1715 on 17 Jan. NB: RUT traded at prior session low price on opening on 24 Feb and did not give a gap down like other indices; there is no COVID gap to fill for small caps; DJI however, came up 742 pips short of closing that gap at 8155 last week. Will it get there still? Statistically with only 30 stocks this index does not always follow probablility models...

Will it crash again? Look back at prior offenses: 1987 was a glitch-driven program trading nightmare, whole books were written on it, essentially a self-feeding frenzy run by algos and bots. 1989 was a modest normal correction that led to the monster bull of 1990s. Nothing ever happens exactly the same way twice. 2000 - 2009 was actually a 9-year bearish zig-zag correction, waveform exactly like the 2018 zig-zag, just 9 years long, lol. IMO a fair chance to get a zigzag here again, but an 'M' pattern is more likely IMO.

If SPX gives a nominal new high this week, even a close 3 pips above Feb high will provoke selling IMO. Some contributors expect DJI to close the Feb 24 Covid gap, if this comes to pass we will see new ATHs on SPX and NQ, RUT might double top if they do.

So many calling for a massive selloff to double bottom, but IMO a garden variety correction of 10-15% is more likely and would spark the next bullish rally wave sequence.

Absent real recessionary economic data and / or geopolitical instability, another massive panic selloff seems unlikely IMO. It's not 1929.

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BREAK UNDER THE BLUE TL; CORRECTION IMMINENT IMO

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Red Shooting Star Doji....!

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Red Futurz at night, Short-sellers' Delight!

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Gonna close out all pos on the opening gap , look for a bounce and re-entry IMO; target is the lower TL in blue channel, ~3225

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Holding short, rolled and sold; internals = terribad, NYSE 2:1 down, NQ Comp near 4:1 down, RUT in bear mode. FAANG meltup, indicators for broader market > down!

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Rolled, sold and added to shorts. Did well considering how stupidly bullish it gapped up; hallmarks of exhaustino gap, lower, declining volume, RSI diverging, MOMO and FAANgs driving it.

Several contributors have observed how SPX looks like RUT with FANNGs extracted, lol; retail-driven bubble:

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Helluva drop to fill the gap at 2865 from here...

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All in

Trade closed: stop reached:

I'm done

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Shorted 3500 ffs, gimme a bone dammit!

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Shorted again on 3505 lol, took bank from the short legs on these spreads...

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NB: DJI now ~170 pips from closing its COVID gap!