Igor-Silva

S&P500 Update #5 - The economy apocalypse is around the corner

Short
SP:SPX   S&P 500 Index

The time strings are relative to our dislocation perspective since there is a correlation between facts from the past, present, and future. So it's crucial to us study our history, look at our current decisions, and how the events are developing. Then we can trace a perspective of what future we should expect, and we should do the same with the market to comprehend its behavior.

Past

Almost ten years ago, the world faced one of its worst financial crisis known by the name of Subprime Crisis. At the occasion to avoid a collapse of the banking system, the president-in-office George W. Bush signed the $700 billion bank bailout bill named as "Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008." This bill had the primary purpose of restoring the confidence of the market and providing relief to the financial crisis.
Barack Obama after took office, passed the "American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA)", juicing $787 billion (that in the end reached $831 billion) into the economy, the largest anti-recession spending since World War II. This initiative was targeted to a writ off the impact over the Tax for families; invest in infrastructure projects, health care expansion, and educational spending.

Months after these laws promulgation, the market responded and started a historic bull run liked nothing did happen, or we have learned something. Even if the bankers and government would rather maintain the current system instead of learning from their mistakes, the evolution is unstoppable, and at the middle of the chaos, Bitcoin made his debut. The promising technology that one day could face the bankers and governments a form of disruptive evolution, for the banking system.

Present

The market has stunning thrived ever since but always haunted by the ghost of 2008, still afraid of the possibility of a new crash. However, here must separate the paranoia from the signals of the past. The New York Federal Reserve Bank injected more than $275 billion in four days that represent 39.2% of the entire 2008-2009 bailout to avoid interest rates to spike. All this effort it's not being made with a full-blown crisis, for a matter of fact, the signals of recession (inverted yield curve, trade war, currency manipulations, etc.) are just starting to show up.
On the other hand, Bitcoin it has shown a fantastic pace of evolution, growing in popularity, adoption, the development of its financial instruments. Beyond that the financial system is demonstrating again weakening of the trust, the Bitcoin network hits records after records of Hash rate what turns Bitcoin more reliable and safer. Regulations are starting to settle in across the world, turning the asset less exposed to legal risks.

Future

"Look deep into nature, and then you will understand everything better."- Einstein

After we look to the Past and Present, the question that comes in mind is what the Future reserve to us. To have the best shot at this question, we must keep in mind that economy its the expression of our collective, and shows the same symptoms of us as individuals.
Since every day, basic needs cost more, and wages don't follow the same pace. We tend to live within a pool of anxiety, our time it continuously tracked and counted. Because we feel almost like we must produce, thrive, and get ahead of everyone all the time, but in reality, most of us are living paycheck to paycheck, wondering how to keep our lifestyle and fighting every inch trough the year.
Same with the economy that in a crisis of anxiety and panic, it tries to keep moving forward and growing over its capacity and in a relentless pursuit for results, lost track of time. We must ask ourselves how much time this can endure in such a hostile environment. With alternatives like Bitcoin getting stronger every day at the sidelines of a market that it's losing its grip. The sentiment's shifting as we can daily see.
The time is an unstoppable force and works in favor of the evolution; it's up to us start to learn and evolve with it before its too late for it.

Disclaimer: All content of Golden Dragon has only educational and informational purposes, and never should use or take it as financial advice.

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