The next few weeks are do or die for the S&P 500
Welcome!
Consider this a follow up on my previous S&P 500 analysis which you can find here:
My outlook on this global economic barometer hasn´t changed - I still believe we are in a bear market with new lows to come.
Today´s analysis is very simple but, judging by S&P´s history, very powerful.
We are right in front of a 2-day death cross between the 50 and the 200EMA. Now, moving averages are at its core a lagging indicator and can certainly produce fakeouts but I found it astonishing just how clear this cross has shown whether the index is in a bull or a bear market.
Circled white, you can see the two times since the year 2000 the cross has actually happened; both times the result was a year and a half long bear market with a 50 - 55% move from the top to the ultimate bottom.
We have also gotten several aversions of the death cross which means the general uptrend remained intact but the corrective phase of the uptrend was so strong the cross was very close to happening. Ultimately the buying pressure prevails and while both EMAs come close to each other they never cross and the bullish momentum once again takes over.
As you can see in the chart posted in the comments we are very, very close to having a third death cross in the last 20 years. Should we get it, I expect at least my primary downside target will get hit in due time.
Bulls have a chance to prevent this from happening but they have to do it asap - the more market acceptance price has below the 50 & 200EMA, the stronger the argument for a general stock market bear market becomes.
Thank you for reading.
Consider this a follow up on my previous S&P 500 analysis which you can find here:
My outlook on this global economic barometer hasn´t changed - I still believe we are in a bear market with new lows to come.
Today´s analysis is very simple but, judging by S&P´s history, very powerful.
We are right in front of a 2-day death cross between the 50 and the 200EMA. Now, moving averages are at its core a lagging indicator and can certainly produce fakeouts but I found it astonishing just how clear this cross has shown whether the index is in a bull or a bear market.
Circled white, you can see the two times since the year 2000 the cross has actually happened; both times the result was a year and a half long bear market with a 50 - 55% move from the top to the ultimate bottom.
We have also gotten several aversions of the death cross which means the general uptrend remained intact but the corrective phase of the uptrend was so strong the cross was very close to happening. Ultimately the buying pressure prevails and while both EMAs come close to each other they never cross and the bullish momentum once again takes over.
As you can see in the chart posted in the comments we are very, very close to having a third death cross in the last 20 years. Should we get it, I expect at least my primary downside target will get hit in due time.
Bulls have a chance to prevent this from happening but they have to do it asap - the more market acceptance price has below the 50 & 200EMA, the stronger the argument for a general stock market bear market becomes.
Thank you for reading.
Comment:
Comment:
Completely forgot to update this, we actually got another death cross aversion.
As long as there is no death cross on the 2D tf I really can´t be bearish on the general stock market, obviously.
As long as there is no death cross on the 2D tf I really can´t be bearish on the general stock market, obviously.