August's sideways movement was constructive for the early September jump. Support is now reinforced at the 50d and 200d MA. A straight line up is clearly unexpected, but weakness allows for entry at favorable levels.
There is plenty to like about the shape of the daily chart since the December 2018 low. Structurally it is similar to wave 1 of BOTH wave 3 and wave 5 within the higher degree wave 3 from 2012-2018. The current shape is found within wave 1 of wave 5 (from Dec 2018 low) and the entire structure repeats within the March 2009 higher degree wave count. Timing also matches within Fibonacci ratio/scale as does the respective magnitudes of declines (see PPO indicator and yellow arrows).
There is plenty to be excited about as this profile resolves. Further decline can't be ignored as an alternate, but is no longer a primary read of mine (see my August chart). Higher Fibonacci levels are indicated, with a conservative eventual target for wave 5 aligned using the 2009 base ratios (near 3200).
I have no idea what news events (or tweets) will drive this process. Fundamentally there is a wall of Central Bank liquidity and sufficiently low investor sentiment, to fuel the process. In fact, any surprise factor for tariff discussions likely is on the favorable side with doubt being more built in it seems.
One footnote on CB liquidity. It is my belief that the rise in early September was partly due to Quantitative Tightening (balance sheet runoff) being discontinued resulting in added liquidity (member bank reserves). I'm looking closely if that repeats the first week of October until a trend is identified (and thus no longer valid once others position for it).
There is plenty to like about the shape of the daily chart since the December 2018 low. Structurally it is similar to wave 1 of BOTH wave 3 and wave 5 within the higher degree wave 3 from 2012-2018. The current shape is found within wave 1 of wave 5 (from Dec 2018 low) and the entire structure repeats within the March 2009 higher degree wave count. Timing also matches within Fibonacci ratio/scale as does the respective magnitudes of declines (see PPO indicator and yellow arrows).
There is plenty to be excited about as this profile resolves. Further decline can't be ignored as an alternate, but is no longer a primary read of mine (see my August chart). Higher Fibonacci levels are indicated, with a conservative eventual target for wave 5 aligned using the 2009 base ratios (near 3200).
I have no idea what news events (or tweets) will drive this process. Fundamentally there is a wall of Central Bank liquidity and sufficiently low investor sentiment, to fuel the process. In fact, any surprise factor for tariff discussions likely is on the favorable side with doubt being more built in it seems.
One footnote on CB liquidity. It is my belief that the rise in early September was partly due to Quantitative Tightening (balance sheet runoff) being discontinued resulting in added liquidity (member bank reserves). I'm looking closely if that repeats the first week of October until a trend is identified (and thus no longer valid once others position for it).