The narrative here is quite simple. The futures chart is clearer, but I'm posting the actual index since sometimes the overnight session can see wild movements on low volume specifically around the 3AM (eastern) hour.
We've seen a nice rally off of a test below 3900. Everything was oversold and there were many significant opportunities given to day and swing traders alike. We have seen basically a 200 pt move on the index over the course of a week and now that we've closed here I want to point out a few things on this chart.
Focusing mostly on this current move up from 3900, we've seen a 61.8 retracement as well as a 161.8% expansion for an expanded flat (assuming that is what is going on here). These targets should at a minimum provide some key resistance moving into next week.
A pop closer to 4100 on Monday is possible, though not very likely. There's a catalyst coming and we don't know what it is yet. Only history will give that narrative, but I have some key indicators giving me some supporting confidence that we will swing in the downward trajectory in the near future, possibly in the next 30-45 days.
Watch the daily 100EMA which is right around 4095 as of Friday close.
We've seen a nice rally off of a test below 3900. Everything was oversold and there were many significant opportunities given to day and swing traders alike. We have seen basically a 200 pt move on the index over the course of a week and now that we've closed here I want to point out a few things on this chart.
Focusing mostly on this current move up from 3900, we've seen a 61.8 retracement as well as a 161.8% expansion for an expanded flat (assuming that is what is going on here). These targets should at a minimum provide some key resistance moving into next week.
A pop closer to 4100 on Monday is possible, though not very likely. There's a catalyst coming and we don't know what it is yet. Only history will give that narrative, but I have some key indicators giving me some supporting confidence that we will swing in the downward trajectory in the near future, possibly in the next 30-45 days.
Watch the daily 100EMA which is right around 4095 as of Friday close.
Trade closed: target reached:
We went a little higher than I expected, but we moved down significantly from this area. Only spending one day above where I was looking for a rejection.
