S&P 500 Numerology - Hypothesis of Major Cycle Top

SP:SPX   S&P 500 Index
The concept of numerology is most often not taken seriously for obvious reasons. Most principally, it is because it doesn't make logical sense to the human brain. The human brain (of those rooted in western culture, at least) is more attuned to Newtonian logic, structured systems, or the stamp of approval from some poorly run university journal than it is accepting certain "coincidental" truths. The entire subject of "microeconomics" is a testament to this need to reduce human behavior into four or five hard, mathematical equations. I have personally taken a microeconomics class and I can safely say that none of the concepts can be practically applied to real life commerce. Please refrain from commenting if you disagree; you can instead have more fun trying to calculate individual elasticities for trade idea subscriptions.

Wow, got pretty sidetracked there. My point is that keeping an open mind to certain market-related concepts can really broaden your understanding of how price action actually works. If that isn't incentive enough, then it can also substantially improve your timing accuracy and a general sense of market direction. If this still isn't incentive enough, then you might be inelastic to certain trade idea subscriptions. I wouldn't know though, since I dropped the class after lecture number 1.

In theme with open-mindedness, check out the numerological proof above. The basis for this idea derives from W.D. Gann's concept of squaring price with time, which can be interpreted in any number of ways and applied as such. Basically, his idea stems from his observation that market trends change direction during those instances where some amount of price is equal to some passage of time. Put another way, the market cannot reverse its trend unless the underlying reaches a certain diagonal distance away from its origin, such that the y-axis distance equals the x-axis distance. Put another way, if the diagonal distance from a given origin point is equally distant horizontally and vertically from either respective axis, then that diagonal distance can be drawn at a 45-degree angle, such that a perfect square can be traced around it.

If this still seems confusing, that's because it is. The concept of time and price squared is often misinterpreted, and even more often, applied incorrectly. Ever try using a "square of nine" and wondering what the hell you were doing for that many hours? Classic case of not really understanding the concept of price/time squared. The truth is that Gann's work is extremely intensive and valid educational resources are both difficult to come by and usually quite expensive. If you ever come across something Gann-related that isn't either of those things, then it's likely incomplete and will surely leave you more confused than you were beforehand.

To alleviate your confusion about the point of my numerological proof up there, all I did was take the square root of a number of calendar days between March 6th, 2009 and September 2nd, 2021 and compared that quotient with the square root of the number of dollars/share in between the low price reached on the former date and the high price reached on the latter date. If the high of 4545 reached last September really is the top of some major trend, then it must necessarily tie out with a corresponding bottom made at some point X in the past. The two square-root quotients of price difference and time difference between two separate dates must relate in some sort of numerological way for these dates to define the starting point and the ending point of an apparent trend. The more obvious and literal the connection, the more sure you can be that you've nailed the defining start and end dates to a major S&P trend. If you don't believe me, then try it out on another set of dates. Eventually, you will see what I mean (hint: try starting your search on a major round number like the first date that hits 1000 price points).

Now, if you've read up until this point, I commend you. Your reward in doing so is knowing that the proof succeeded, which means that the September high will not be exceeded in the near future; certainly not in 2021.

You should also know that this is stated in the chart above.



Trade active: To give some perspective, I made the Nasdaq chart below to show what the minimum retracement target is when assuming the 2009 top is in:

A bit over 9k is generous.. if this is to mirror the 2000 tech bubble, were testing 5k again and probably breaking it at least once.
Trade active: Just a heads up.. today marks 12.618 years since the March 9th low for SPX and IXIC, but it also marks 21.618 years since the IXIC top on March 8th, 2000.

I think there will be fireworks starting today or Monday. I may post something in more detail on it, but I would strongly consider shorting into the weekend.
Trade active: I concede that a new high was made, but with the futures hitting 4620 +- a few points as a top, it actually ties to near-perfection with the number of calendar days since the 2009 bottom.

So, am expecting a major turn to start today at some point and that is entirely based on the same numerological concepts explained above, just applied slightly differently.

Keep in mind that if there is no major turn today and my proof is debunked, then everyone can rest easy knowing that some other force dictates markets and that my take is incorrect. And if that happens, I'll just have to continue living with myself.

But hey, ya never know.
Trade active: Lastly, since this particular wave structure is some sort of expanding triangle, the top is completely ambiguous for another 200-300 points on ES.

Therefore, I am not using other technical methods other than numerology here. I mean, trying to decipher a wave count and/or using technical indicators for the past month has been useless anyway.

I am still only holding puts on the big names, which I will strangle with offsetting calls today if the cash index exceeds 4630 at any point today.

Best of luck.