Everyone is focused on the triangle from January's peak to present day. My view from last week has not changed about that (abcde and up we go). One good thing about a triangle is getting traders focused on time - namely the triangle's end.
In Elliott Wave Theory we're always focused on time (wave endings for multiple degrees of waves). Yes, we all can count to 5. I'm no different, calling for wave 4's triangle to end followed by wave 5. There are also many fundamental factors for that expectation (described in earlier published charts) and I'll add to that this week. However, the issue of TIME has entered the picture for a higher degree wave count.
Impulse waves fluctuate with smaller ripples after initial stimulus is applied, just like this triangle. As those ripples diminish new stimulus is needed. A reversal of each ripple's fear allows for new stimulus and optimism.
Adding to earlier bullish reasons, the unravel of wave 4 is to be found in how it formed. Initially higher rates (fear of 3% on 10 Yr), then Trade War fear (tariffs), then economic fear (oil, slowing economy?). All with diminished impact. Then new stimulus is applied as rates steady or decline, US/China negotiations progress, Q2 GDP reverts to sustained growth, etc. It all works in reverse, but for the bulls.
Lastly, TIME is now worthy of more attention. My estimation(s) going back to mid 2017 called for an interim peak in mid-late May 2018. I'm not willing to ignore that. My work with Elliott Wave extends beyond wave counts and formations. It includes timing of major wave events as a key consideration. The big hand comes around right on schedule with cycles, and the bigger the hand the more important it is.
Net/Net, all the reasons for reaching new highs are still in place, but checking on TIME is very much in the picture now.
In Elliott Wave Theory we're always focused on time (wave endings for multiple degrees of waves). Yes, we all can count to 5. I'm no different, calling for wave 4's triangle to end followed by wave 5. There are also many fundamental factors for that expectation (described in earlier published charts) and I'll add to that this week. However, the issue of TIME has entered the picture for a higher degree wave count.
Impulse waves fluctuate with smaller ripples after initial stimulus is applied, just like this triangle. As those ripples diminish new stimulus is needed. A reversal of each ripple's fear allows for new stimulus and optimism.
Adding to earlier bullish reasons, the unravel of wave 4 is to be found in how it formed. Initially higher rates (fear of 3% on 10 Yr), then Trade War fear (tariffs), then economic fear (oil, slowing economy?). All with diminished impact. Then new stimulus is applied as rates steady or decline, US/China negotiations progress, Q2 GDP reverts to sustained growth, etc. It all works in reverse, but for the bulls.
Lastly, TIME is now worthy of more attention. My estimation(s) going back to mid 2017 called for an interim peak in mid-late May 2018. I'm not willing to ignore that. My work with Elliott Wave extends beyond wave counts and formations. It includes timing of major wave events as a key consideration. The big hand comes around right on schedule with cycles, and the bigger the hand the more important it is.
Net/Net, all the reasons for reaching new highs are still in place, but checking on TIME is very much in the picture now.