mikeoakster

S&P 500... keep building the storm?

INDEX:SPX   S&P 500 Index
I was expecting Subminuette wave c of Minuette wave w of Minute wave iv to complete a measured move (at 1969), but a doji took place at 1947, between the 61,8% and 100% projections (near an important trend line ), and was then confirmed by the following candle, so Minuette wave w was done and it was time to go down for Minuette wave x, which Subminuette wave c could be already finished or still underway.

So, for now, let's see if the 0,618 projection holds (confluence with the 50% retracement of Minuette wave w, with the support trend line in the 4 hour time frame, and with a strong support zone ), or if price keeps going down and then holds at the 100% projection, completing a measured move.

If I'm understanding all of this correctly (it's a huge if!), the index could be forming the bottom for a strong rally into the top of the channel, completing my proposed Minute wave iv.
I'm hoping you are correct. So you see 185 before a move to 200's or could we bounce here starting on Monday or Tuesday etc? It seems everyone is negative too much right now, way too too much so I am thinking Monday surprises to the upside but who knows really. Whew...
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mikeoakster Trance-Man
Like you say, "... who knows...", it can bounce from here on Monday, or it can bounce from here or Tuesday, or it can bounce from 1950 on Monday or Tuesday or Wednesday, or it can retrace more (as it did back on September 29th, where it retraced 88,6%), or it can keep going down and make a new low and then bounce from there (invalidating my plan...) or break the trend line and accelerate to the downside... or it can do anything else... nobody knows, right?

In the weekly time frame, the hammer in the third week of January is huge, and this past week we didn't get a bearish engulfing, so it looks like a correction, keeping the hammer reversal pattern intact. I've been noticing that these weekly hammer and bullish engulfing patterns are quite powerful - it seems to me they represent bottoms formed by institutions...

So, let's see how it behaves in the lower time frames, let's see if:
- The 1 hour support trend line holds and price breaks out the resistance trend line, and if then manages to reach the bottom of the Ichimoku Cloud at 1900;
- 15 min bullish engulfing confirms the break out of both the resistance trend line and the Ichimoku Tenkan Sen, and if then price reaches the top of the Cloud (could also be at 1900 at the time price reaches it).

You know, step-by-step, carefully... not easy...
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Your chart looks like my old idea:

Game plan for the next Fed rate hike meeting in March 2016


Highly speculative long after many consecutive days of selling


FED Decision: Hikes as expected, slightly more dovish



especially this one:

China crash, Greece almost out of cash - A bearish 2015 scenario
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