I Can Hear the Cheers: How Long Will It Last?
Hello traders,
I will keep the analysis brief because I have explained over the past several ideas my view-points on the market, whats going on and why we are seeing what we are seeing, but today I will provide a quick update! :-)
With no confirmation as of yet that we are actually in an impulse and sharp Wave 5 downwards, we are actually still in an impulse upwards and with today clearly being another 'green' day as I expected in my idea and analysis from Sunday, it is likely the rally will continue into my 'white box'.
What's important here is not trying to time the market out exactly but, rather for those who are in the market, you want to start taking considerable risk off the table beginning at the end of today if we finish in the upper 2700s. I recommend no one holds leveraged funds on the bull side OVER the Easter weekend.
It is not uncommon what-so-ever to re-touch near a 50% level during voracious bear markets, however, at this point you can actually argue the market is more over-valued now given the environment than when the SPX was near 3400 ironically enough.
It could be possible that the next wave down may-be triggered by a sharp sell-off in crude. Perhaps an OPEC deal won't come? Who knows.
- zSplit
I will keep the analysis brief because I have explained over the past several ideas my view-points on the market, whats going on and why we are seeing what we are seeing, but today I will provide a quick update! :-)
With no confirmation as of yet that we are actually in an impulse and sharp Wave 5 downwards, we are actually still in an impulse upwards and with today clearly being another 'green' day as I expected in my idea and analysis from Sunday, it is likely the rally will continue into my 'white box'.
What's important here is not trying to time the market out exactly but, rather for those who are in the market, you want to start taking considerable risk off the table beginning at the end of today if we finish in the upper 2700s. I recommend no one holds leveraged funds on the bull side OVER the Easter weekend.
It is not uncommon what-so-ever to re-touch near a 50% level during voracious bear markets, however, at this point you can actually argue the market is more over-valued now given the environment than when the SPX was near 3400 ironically enough.
It could be possible that the next wave down may-be triggered by a sharp sell-off in crude. Perhaps an OPEC deal won't come? Who knows.
- zSplit
Comment:
UPDATE
SPX topped out in-between the .382 and .5 fib level. It is possible that we MAY enter a final impulse wave down from here.
In history, it is VERY COMMON to see counter rallies begin in-between these two fib levels (without actually hitting the 0.5 fib level). While 2792 was my main target, it is possible we have topped out at 2756.
Based on a down day in Gold, a rollover throughout the day in equities, and even Bitcoin, this could be building liquidity selling for an impending equity sell-off.
Also noteworthy is a strong 101 million of SQQQ. Typically values over 100M indicate a potential large sell-off in the near-term or strong accumulation for one.
- zSplit
SPX topped out in-between the .382 and .5 fib level. It is possible that we MAY enter a final impulse wave down from here.
In history, it is VERY COMMON to see counter rallies begin in-between these two fib levels (without actually hitting the 0.5 fib level). While 2792 was my main target, it is possible we have topped out at 2756.
Based on a down day in Gold, a rollover throughout the day in equities, and even Bitcoin, this could be building liquidity selling for an impending equity sell-off.
Also noteworthy is a strong 101 million of SQQQ. Typically values over 100M indicate a potential large sell-off in the near-term or strong accumulation for one.
- zSplit
Comment:
No top yet it seems! We sha'll continue upwards to my region still near 2800 and approaching 2900.
FOMO minutes at 2:00PM EST which could impact the Gold market.
- zSplit
FOMO minutes at 2:00PM EST which could impact the Gold market.
- zSplit
Comment:
Important Note:
The OPEC meeting starts on Thursday, however, there is an additional meeting on Friday behind closed doors.
This means that we won't know what goes on with the production cut or lack there of until late Friday or over the weekend.
For those in longs, you want to consider taking considerable profits by tomorrow morning when the upside (if there is) would likely be the most elevated before people take profits as the day progresses (before the long weekend) as is typical.
- zSplit
The OPEC meeting starts on Thursday, however, there is an additional meeting on Friday behind closed doors.
This means that we won't know what goes on with the production cut or lack there of until late Friday or over the weekend.
For those in longs, you want to consider taking considerable profits by tomorrow morning when the upside (if there is) would likely be the most elevated before people take profits as the day progresses (before the long weekend) as is typical.
- zSplit
1) Gold and Silver are potentially near topping. I advise people not to enter the precious metals market right now as they could trend back to pre-break levels (1390 and 9.5-10 respectively) due to a double whammy of risk-on and soon a liquidity sell-off
2) Current equity rally is off of significantly lower volume than typical
3) Next sell-off could trigger either from poor economic data (i.e. jobless) claims or if crude craters from no OPEC deal
- zSplit