This will be my weekend update.
Im flying out tonight for my birthday week, will be in transit into second part of Sunday, if will have time, I will update more charts from the airport.
For those who know me from the site I was on for 10 years, I will be seeing Tracey on this vacation trip, so very exited to finally meet her in person
We trade every day and Im very exited to trade with her in person. So stay tuned for Twitter life updates.
Ok lets get back to the report:
I had no chance to check the numbers on Friday, but SPX closed right at my maj support level 3933 (close was at 3934 and futs dived down lower).
- So its either a gap up or gap down scenario for Monday!
- Resistance is at 4028-34 (Maj resistance)
- Maj Support is at 3933 and if lost (gaped down on Monday) then 3850 and 3808SPX (next Maj support) becomes the next target
A close below 3808 makes the ideal target next - 3744-48
As noted on Thursday update, if we wont take 3970 it will be very bearish, the high was at 3977 on Friday and you know where it closed!
So that call was successfully fulfilled.
As noted (grey trendlines above Fri highs) on the chart, you can see that the price rejected some broken trendlines from the bottom, its negative.
Close below Thursday low and at the daily lows is negative by itself and usually ends up with continuation on Monday.
This is a 1h chart, look at RSI and MACD, both look terrible and not even close to be oversold! Another negative signal
Fibs targeting right into 3795-3814SPX zone, inline with my next Maj Support level on closing level - 3808SPX
Europe close was at the highs, so they are trapped, big! Another negative signal
VIX closed above its mid daily Bollinger for 3rd day straight, positive for VIX negative signal for the markets.
Will we get a gap down and a crash like move down on Monday I dont know, but the setup is there.
On the other hand if we open at low 3900 (max down to 3889-95 is allowed) and start reversing, it can be a very strong rally day!
So its all up to 3900 level on Monday open, ideally we just gap down below it and dont even look back (can just re-test 3908SPX max). then I can make a case of just riding the wave all the way down to 3800 all in one day!
CPI is on Tuesday, that would be super interesting, as IF, again Big IF there is at 5% down day on Monday and we close near 3748 gap close, then it can be another great lotto call for another Tuesday big a$$ red open like we had on the Oct 13th. Which will be bought for at least a good size bounce going into the Fed Interest rate decision. Which (Fed day) I think will make the price spike up and then reverse hard. If that happens, then we should see 3580 or low 3600 by Dec 19th.
From Dec 19th low, it will be only a long play for me going into early if not mid Jan.
This is my pathway going into the next week and EOY. Next week its def can be the craziest week this year! Well and I have a birthday coming up next week as well:)
Here is a poll to take, it closes on Sunday midnight, feel free to share with anyone at any site you are on. Lets get a clear picture of the sentiment out there:
strawpoll.com/polls/XOgOJpVV0n3
So far 40 already made their bets
Have a great weekend and do as much research as possible for the next week, as who ever gets trapped, it will be very painful!
Please note I can be totally wrong with my prediction, but I have to trade my own homework.
If the wind changed to a different direction, I will quickly update my view on the current market situation.
Tima
Im flying out tonight for my birthday week, will be in transit into second part of Sunday, if will have time, I will update more charts from the airport.
For those who know me from the site I was on for 10 years, I will be seeing Tracey on this vacation trip, so very exited to finally meet her in person
We trade every day and Im very exited to trade with her in person. So stay tuned for Twitter life updates.
Ok lets get back to the report:
I had no chance to check the numbers on Friday, but SPX closed right at my maj support level 3933 (close was at 3934 and futs dived down lower).
- So its either a gap up or gap down scenario for Monday!
- Resistance is at 4028-34 (Maj resistance)
- Maj Support is at 3933 and if lost (gaped down on Monday) then 3850 and 3808SPX (next Maj support) becomes the next target
A close below 3808 makes the ideal target next - 3744-48
As noted on Thursday update, if we wont take 3970 it will be very bearish, the high was at 3977 on Friday and you know where it closed!
So that call was successfully fulfilled.
As noted (grey trendlines above Fri highs) on the chart, you can see that the price rejected some broken trendlines from the bottom, its negative.
Close below Thursday low and at the daily lows is negative by itself and usually ends up with continuation on Monday.
This is a 1h chart, look at RSI and MACD, both look terrible and not even close to be oversold! Another negative signal
Fibs targeting right into 3795-3814SPX zone, inline with my next Maj Support level on closing level - 3808SPX
Europe close was at the highs, so they are trapped, big! Another negative signal
VIX closed above its mid daily Bollinger for 3rd day straight, positive for VIX negative signal for the markets.
Will we get a gap down and a crash like move down on Monday I dont know, but the setup is there.
On the other hand if we open at low 3900 (max down to 3889-95 is allowed) and start reversing, it can be a very strong rally day!
So its all up to 3900 level on Monday open, ideally we just gap down below it and dont even look back (can just re-test 3908SPX max). then I can make a case of just riding the wave all the way down to 3800 all in one day!
CPI is on Tuesday, that would be super interesting, as IF, again Big IF there is at 5% down day on Monday and we close near 3748 gap close, then it can be another great lotto call for another Tuesday big a$$ red open like we had on the Oct 13th. Which will be bought for at least a good size bounce going into the Fed Interest rate decision. Which (Fed day) I think will make the price spike up and then reverse hard. If that happens, then we should see 3580 or low 3600 by Dec 19th.
From Dec 19th low, it will be only a long play for me going into early if not mid Jan.
This is my pathway going into the next week and EOY. Next week its def can be the craziest week this year! Well and I have a birthday coming up next week as well:)
Here is a poll to take, it closes on Sunday midnight, feel free to share with anyone at any site you are on. Lets get a clear picture of the sentiment out there:
strawpoll.com/polls/XOgOJpVV0n3
So far 40 already made their bets
Have a great weekend and do as much research as possible for the next week, as who ever gets trapped, it will be very painful!
Please note I can be totally wrong with my prediction, but I have to trade my own homework.
If the wind changed to a different direction, I will quickly update my view on the current market situation.
Tima
Daily
4h
4h is in a start of a downtrend here