Elliott Wave: Week of 7/2/18 - See you in September?

SPCFD:SPX   S&P 500 Index
The famous summer love question...

I've reluctantly moved the target for end of wave 5 out to September. Relax, as trend is fine and wave 2 of that fifth wave is working through what is needed for longer term strength.

This week we feature the 50d and 100d sma to show a cross above (orange over red) as the 50d (orange) pulls the 100d (red) upward once index levels move upward. Overhead resistance is proving stubborn, but support continues to hold with 2675 still the crucial level for any change to outlook.

MACD is a reliable momentum indicator to monitor for an upward cross to occur as a bullish sign. At present the recent downdraft is shown and should be watched closely. Note the earlier moves indicated with green arrows.

Fibonacci support is at 2675 and target remains 2985-90 area from the 2/2016 low. Resistance is at recent high of 2740 area and then 2801 going back to 3/2018 (yellow line). Overall trend remains near middle of trend (red lines).

I'm watching the Fed balance sheet reduction as influence on monthly price levels. There have been too many declines in the last week for several months in 2018 that seem to be uneven. Notably, take a look at index levels for the last week of each month this year, then maybe some residual decline into early the following month. Once that process is over upward moves occur as that turbulence settles.

Enjoy the holiday (and summer). Happy Birthday USA!


Thanks, and happy Independence Day to you!
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