DaddySawbucks

How Low Will it Go?

TVC:SPX   S&P 500 Index
Maybe halfway down the flagpole. Had a pennant form around 4700, usually a continuation pattern.

Might get another waterfall straight off, or a B wave and then lower. 50 DMA likely target for support.

Be Real Carefull about Buyin this Dip, these dots may not be done dippin. A bounce is certainly possible before lower, wouldn't bet on it.

We had two weak bounces, failed rallies on 1/6, 1/7 suggesting there just might not be much bounce in this Tigger.

There is a definite impulsive EW pattern in the downtrend suggesting it may bounce first and then rollover again.
(Not shown, see it better in smaller timeframe.) A pivot reversal will appear within a few sessions IMO, leading to a right shoulder.

Not investing advice; trade at your own risk! GLTA!!
Comment:
Yeah, here we are, and a gap to fill above, hmm!
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Gonna bounce from 50 DMA IMO
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Made bank from the bounce; DO NOT CHASE IMO; likely to get a secondary sell, re-test. It MIGHT GAP UP Tues; hold a few calls O/N if you are bold!
Trade closed: stop reached:
Aiaiaiai she broke... all bets off, if it bounces, expect rejection under tl and a fierce waterfall thereafter.

Entering bear market imo, see Wyckoff distribution.
For once I didn't buy calls on the way down. Bought some puts, closed early, kept expecting bounce on gapfill. Astounding reversal.
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Danger in drawing these charts is creating an expectation; when it does otherwise, you can get hammered. Speaking of hammers, see if we get one Friday.
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Looks like an impulsive move and this is the 3rd EW. By alternating rule of EWs, since 2 was vigorous and carried to the .62 Fibo retracement, 4 will be weak and likely about or less than 0.38 Fibo. Wouldn't even try to get long in it, just pick a short entry for the fifth down.
Comment:
Revisiting this idea look at that lower double top, ominous IMO.... have a look at Dec 2018!
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