Macro-Traders-Strategies

relief rally in June, death in the summer

Short
TVC:SPX   S&P 500 Index
Are we in a bear market, or should we buy the dip?
One thing is for sure, the FED IS PERMANENTLY OUT OF THE MARKET. Inflation is here to stay! Unless it is proven otherwise, commodity companies cannot add capacity (even if they wanted to) like you can in the cloud! The Fed's only concern is the job market, and there are plenty of jobs out there. For a very long time, the markets have to find their feet, growth is literally over and since growth is a big component of the S&P it now needs to rebalance.
OPEC has learnt from 2014, it will not destroy its own economy just to bail out the US politicians and there is no interest for them to add to capacity when they have spent years building up debt and living in austerity, it is time to pay back loans and invest in the future, OIL (and therefore inflation) will stay above or average above $100 for a couple of years. The alternative will take years to hold up and governments are so indebted that they cant spend to defend the stock market.

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