I do not think the SPX and other markets have reached their ATH yet.
We have another 6-8 months until SPX reaches 5000 in a blow-off top around summer 2024.
The Unemployment Rate will continue slowly rising until the summer of 2024, when it reaches 4%, expect an acceleration in unemployed workers.
The Fed might raise the Fed Fund rate 1 or 2 more times, or they could pause from now on. When the Fed starts lowering the rate, expect markets to start crashing! I suspect they would pivot in the summer of 2024.
US10Y generally starts going down a few months before the crash starts. I think we've reached the US10Y top and it will start going down very soon.
****** December 2021 was NOT the SPX top (4700) because the Fed Fund rate was at 0% at that time. The market tops NEVER happened when the rate was at 0%. The Feb raises the rate and market tops ALWAYS happened when Fed pivots.
We have another 6-8 months until SPX reaches 5000 in a blow-off top around summer 2024.
The Unemployment Rate will continue slowly rising until the summer of 2024, when it reaches 4%, expect an acceleration in unemployed workers.
The Fed might raise the Fed Fund rate 1 or 2 more times, or they could pause from now on. When the Fed starts lowering the rate, expect markets to start crashing! I suspect they would pivot in the summer of 2024.
US10Y generally starts going down a few months before the crash starts. I think we've reached the US10Y top and it will start going down very soon.
****** December 2021 was NOT the SPX top (4700) because the Fed Fund rate was at 0% at that time. The market tops NEVER happened when the rate was at 0%. The Feb raises the rate and market tops ALWAYS happened when Fed pivots.