My 12/1/19 post - "Short - Term Decline May Have Begun" was correct SPX had made a peak on 11/29/19 just below two Fibonacci resistance points.
My 12/2/19 post - "SPX Buying Opportunity Zone" was correct on 12/3/19 the SPX bottomed at 3070 in the upper range of the support zone 3040 to 3090.
There's reason to believe the correction that began on 11/29/19 may not be complete. Most of the time waves are longer in time and larger in size than the sub waves one degree lower. The decline from 11/29/19 to 12/3/19 was 2.60% slightly larger than the supposed wave "2" of 2.2%.
The drop from 11/29/19 to 12/3/19 was 23 - 30 minute bars. the supposed wave "4" decline was 20 bars long.
My original speculation was that the decline could be about 2 - weeks long, the drop so far is only about 3 days. The price support zone has been reached and at least the minimal percentage drop has been achieve, the briefness of the 11/29/19 to 12/3/19 is suspicious.
There's still formidable resistance at the two Fibonacci points at 3155.20 and 3155.60 plus now a third coordinate at 3154.30 the high made on 11/29/19. This represents a Fibonacci 1/1 ratio, which for those of you that study intraday wave counts is the most common Fibonacci ratio. This tight Fib cluster represents powerful resistance.
The calendar also slightly favors the bears. 2019 has been the year of hell for the bears and the year of heaven for the bulls. Its a safe bet that most stock fund managers have met their goals for the year and could be reluctant to aggressively add on long positions. This may explain why the move up on 12/6/19 had a narrow price range during the main session.
Every trading day I measure the range of the main session 9:30 AM to 4:00 PM - ET. Big stock funds need liquidity and this is the time that they trade. The price range for the SPX - E- Mini futures on 12/6/19 was only 12.50 points. Earlier in the year a big daily move up would have at least twice this range. I've noticed this phenomenon of narrow main session trading for about two months. It appears the big players are buying - just not as much as normal. If you're at a performance level for the year that will let you keep your job why take on extra risk.
On the bearish side of the coin, not all stocks have participated in the 2019 rally. The are only 3 trading weeks left in the year for fund managers to sell underperforming stocks to realize losses.
If not already in place, a double top around 3154 to 3155 could occur in the next 1 or 2 trading days.
Support zone SPX 3040 to 3090 could be reached in 1 or 2 weeks.
Mark
My 12/2/19 post - "SPX Buying Opportunity Zone" was correct on 12/3/19 the SPX bottomed at 3070 in the upper range of the support zone 3040 to 3090.
There's reason to believe the correction that began on 11/29/19 may not be complete. Most of the time waves are longer in time and larger in size than the sub waves one degree lower. The decline from 11/29/19 to 12/3/19 was 2.60% slightly larger than the supposed wave "2" of 2.2%.
The drop from 11/29/19 to 12/3/19 was 23 - 30 minute bars. the supposed wave "4" decline was 20 bars long.
My original speculation was that the decline could be about 2 - weeks long, the drop so far is only about 3 days. The price support zone has been reached and at least the minimal percentage drop has been achieve, the briefness of the 11/29/19 to 12/3/19 is suspicious.
There's still formidable resistance at the two Fibonacci points at 3155.20 and 3155.60 plus now a third coordinate at 3154.30 the high made on 11/29/19. This represents a Fibonacci 1/1 ratio, which for those of you that study intraday wave counts is the most common Fibonacci ratio. This tight Fib cluster represents powerful resistance.
The calendar also slightly favors the bears. 2019 has been the year of hell for the bears and the year of heaven for the bulls. Its a safe bet that most stock fund managers have met their goals for the year and could be reluctant to aggressively add on long positions. This may explain why the move up on 12/6/19 had a narrow price range during the main session.
Every trading day I measure the range of the main session 9:30 AM to 4:00 PM - ET. Big stock funds need liquidity and this is the time that they trade. The price range for the SPX - E- Mini futures on 12/6/19 was only 12.50 points. Earlier in the year a big daily move up would have at least twice this range. I've noticed this phenomenon of narrow main session trading for about two months. It appears the big players are buying - just not as much as normal. If you're at a performance level for the year that will let you keep your job why take on extra risk.
On the bearish side of the coin, not all stocks have participated in the 2019 rally. The are only 3 trading weeks left in the year for fund managers to sell underperforming stocks to realize losses.
If not already in place, a double top around 3154 to 3155 could occur in the next 1 or 2 trading days.
Support zone SPX 3040 to 3090 could be reached in 1 or 2 weeks.
Mark