This is definitely not a popular opinion given what's going on but here's what you need to consider first.
In 2006 and 1999 - Both 2 years before the .com bubble crash and the 08 housing crash, he Federal Reserve tried to combat these financial bubbles by increasing interest rates.
In 2020 - The Federal Reserve has dropped interest rates to the lowest they've ever been historically and has promised they'll try to keep them this low for the foreseeable next 2 years.
Retail Trading is forever changed with 0 fees - Anyone who is 18 years old and has a phone can now trade stocks and options. We've seen a massive rise in retail trader interest due to most people quarantining/having nothing else to do during covid. People are able to lavish their gambling habits as 'Sensible Investing' and I believe we're going to see some never before seen parabolic/volatile price action across the market.
I think we're at the very beginning of volatile and nonsensical times for the stock market. Where it will be dangerous to be a bear, we'll see correlations between the VIX and the S&P 500 that we may have never seen before. My model aside is way too aggressive. But the overall takeaway from this is: Within the last quarter of 2020, we'll see the SPY hit close to $3875.
In 2006 and 1999 - Both 2 years before the .com bubble crash and the 08 housing crash, he Federal Reserve tried to combat these financial bubbles by increasing interest rates.
In 2020 - The Federal Reserve has dropped interest rates to the lowest they've ever been historically and has promised they'll try to keep them this low for the foreseeable next 2 years.
Retail Trading is forever changed with 0 fees - Anyone who is 18 years old and has a phone can now trade stocks and options. We've seen a massive rise in retail trader interest due to most people quarantining/having nothing else to do during covid. People are able to lavish their gambling habits as 'Sensible Investing' and I believe we're going to see some never before seen parabolic/volatile price action across the market.
I think we're at the very beginning of volatile and nonsensical times for the stock market. Where it will be dangerous to be a bear, we'll see correlations between the VIX and the S&P 500 that we may have never seen before. My model aside is way too aggressive. But the overall takeaway from this is: Within the last quarter of 2020, we'll see the SPY hit close to $3875.
