Earlier charts followed a path used for comparison against 14 previous large scale market declines over the last 100 years. Progress updates were published using a monthly series of charts and if you've followed along since July 2020 you've witnessed a steady path forward.
The most recent 15th event was compared to 14 previous historic market declines of similar large magnitude.
* Average of prior 14 events: +32.51% after week 52
* 2020 as 15th event: Result of +41.23% after week 52
The current recovery was above average and ranks 6th among all 15 historic outcomes. It finished slightly above the top trendline (since 2009) and at the suggested target.
Looking ahead using the previous 5 above average events shows a leveling of momentum (e.g., 18 month after). 4 of 5 events were lower after 18 months, with 1921 the exception for a very small gain. All peaked earlier as follows:
Year, Peak Week
1921 Week 57 (peaked and then rose in 18th month)
1932 Week 57 (actually 2nd highest peak with first in week 50)
1942 Week 60
1982 Week 59
2009 Week 56
2021 Current peak at week 59
All mostly flattened out with none declining as "Bear Market" 20%.
Additional considerations include:
- RSI(14) above 70 (see red arrow)
- Fibonacci 1.618 level at 4372.07 based on low in 2/2016 at 1810.10 and peak in 2/2020 at 3393.52
The most recent 15th event was compared to 14 previous historic market declines of similar large magnitude.
* Average of prior 14 events: +32.51% after week 52
* 2020 as 15th event: Result of +41.23% after week 52
The current recovery was above average and ranks 6th among all 15 historic outcomes. It finished slightly above the top trendline (since 2009) and at the suggested target.
Looking ahead using the previous 5 above average events shows a leveling of momentum (e.g., 18 month after). 4 of 5 events were lower after 18 months, with 1921 the exception for a very small gain. All peaked earlier as follows:
Year, Peak Week
1921 Week 57 (peaked and then rose in 18th month)
1932 Week 57 (actually 2nd highest peak with first in week 50)
1942 Week 60
1982 Week 59
2009 Week 56
2021 Current peak at week 59
All mostly flattened out with none declining as "Bear Market" 20%.
Additional considerations include:
- RSI(14) above 70 (see red arrow)
- Fibonacci 1.618 level at 4372.07 based on low in 2/2016 at 1810.10 and peak in 2/2020 at 3393.52