Capitulation, VIX > 40+, the Big Dump of '23 maybe coming, and soon.
.382 Fibo at 3908, NB: R/S line right there, 200 pips under last top.
Unless JPowell indicates "No Time for Puts" on 1 Feb, expect a big disappointment. Bear will end when last bull throws in.
No reason to think JP will suddenly pivot policy. He told us twice now the Fed wont ease up until inflation hits 2% target.
When realization sinks in the dumping will begin. We ain't seen nothin yet.
2/3 Rule: 2/3 of the drop comes in last 1/3 of the chop.
IMO the latest move in December was just the First Wave. Be Ready.
Inflation is Transitory: twitter.com/investin.../1607361002701479936
.382 Fibo at 3908, NB: R/S line right there, 200 pips under last top.
Unless JPowell indicates "No Time for Puts" on 1 Feb, expect a big disappointment. Bear will end when last bull throws in.
No reason to think JP will suddenly pivot policy. He told us twice now the Fed wont ease up until inflation hits 2% target.
When realization sinks in the dumping will begin. We ain't seen nothin yet.
2/3 Rule: 2/3 of the drop comes in last 1/3 of the chop.
IMO the latest move in December was just the First Wave. Be Ready.
Inflation is Transitory: twitter.com/investin.../1607361002701479936
Trade active:
SPY 386 maybe HOTY. Took shorts there in dailies, closed on weakness. See if it pops EOD
Comment:
Several attempts at the MA 50 in the new year getting pushback. It might gap down and run lower soon.
I tell friends and relatives to GTFO now. They object, "But what if we miss the rally? We won't get our money back!"
Investors who bought the top in 1929 waited 15 years to get the money back. Some died waiting. Those who bought in 1974 waited until Reagan's second term. Y2K buyers waited until 2008 to break even, then watched in horror as the price tumbled in half again. FOMO hurts!
If you bought at the top, you're out 20% now. The worst is yet to come. Watch it meltdown and crush to new lows.
People ask when will that be? I do not know. No one knows. Get out now.
I tell friends and relatives to GTFO now. They object, "But what if we miss the rally? We won't get our money back!"
Investors who bought the top in 1929 waited 15 years to get the money back. Some died waiting. Those who bought in 1974 waited until Reagan's second term. Y2K buyers waited until 2008 to break even, then watched in horror as the price tumbled in half again. FOMO hurts!
If you bought at the top, you're out 20% now. The worst is yet to come. Watch it meltdown and crush to new lows.
People ask when will that be? I do not know. No one knows. Get out now.
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Yeah, I kinds thought that might happen. Now we have an unfilled gap above. Extreme bearishness at EOD closing at LOTD is often followed by a reversal.
Do not be surprised if it gets bully again Friday. 3800 is pinned, but if it breaks then we will see much lower imo.
Tried a few calls at 3pm but gave it up for cost of just a nickel when it started to fade. I missed the sell but watched in amazement as 40c puts turned into $2, lol!
I never seem to get those, it happens so rarely is usually a bad bet. Printed today though!
Do not be surprised if it gets bully again Friday. 3800 is pinned, but if it breaks then we will see much lower imo.
Tried a few calls at 3pm but gave it up for cost of just a nickel when it started to fade. I missed the sell but watched in amazement as 40c puts turned into $2, lol!
I never seem to get those, it happens so rarely is usually a bad bet. Printed today though!
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Caught the gapfill and part of the runup. Bouncing from oversold; nuts!
Told ya dont be surprised... it got bully.
Told ya dont be surprised... it got bully.
Comment:
50% retracement here of the 300 pips it shed in Dec.
Very doubtful to get over 4k imo, the 2/3 retracement there. CPI Thurs could top it.
Very doubtful to get over 4k imo, the 2/3 retracement there. CPI Thurs could top it.
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PA fills in another of my charts, so gratifying! Let's see if it makes lower top here, or can it break higher. Volume on the lift so thin here, but not going full Bear until we see the CPI reaction 12 Jan.
Why I am leery? Look back at August. we saw two of these shooting star dojis on the way to 4300 top of 16 Aug. the PA mon>tues looks a lot like the desperate climb before the big drop to LOTY. could get similar PA on CPI thursday, irrational optimism. Fed just said they wont change policy until target goal is met. But endless happy speculation that they might anyway drives price regardless, a bullish surprise is possible here. No position now, all high risk.
Why I am leery? Look back at August. we saw two of these shooting star dojis on the way to 4300 top of 16 Aug. the PA mon>tues looks a lot like the desperate climb before the big drop to LOTY. could get similar PA on CPI thursday, irrational optimism. Fed just said they wont change policy until target goal is met. But endless happy speculation that they might anyway drives price regardless, a bullish surprise is possible here. No position now, all high risk.
Comment:
Inflation is Transitory: twitter.com/Investin...678248751117/photo/1
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Melt-up! Over bought, can get more so! Take care!
Comment:
JN 0.618 Fibo retrace is at 3974 from the drop off 4100.
Comment:
Well well see what happens at the TL ~4014. Surprise! Made bank on puts in am come back an hour later to see a melt-up, redux.
Never underestimate foolhardy optimism!
Never underestimate foolhardy optimism!
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No EOD meltup, tried calls twice and closed with a whimper. Puts at the end made something! Bearish imo.
I feel it very likely we see real crash from Hell in next three months.
I feel it very likely we see real crash from Hell in next three months.
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same massive head fake we saw 21 april and 13 september; another trap. no bear market ends until vix >40.
i shorted eod fri 1/13 after banking calls intraday. could squeak higher ofc, so i wrote 8 spy put spreads, long the 1/20 398p.
EVERYBODY saying the bear is over means it aint. Bear is over when everybody says it will never go up again.
VIX must go >40. Plain & simple.
people curse me for telling them to stfo this market, 'we missed it man!' wait to see what you missed. and do not buy tesla, lol!
i shorted eod fri 1/13 after banking calls intraday. could squeak higher ofc, so i wrote 8 spy put spreads, long the 1/20 398p.
EVERYBODY saying the bear is over means it aint. Bear is over when everybody says it will never go up again.
VIX must go >40. Plain & simple.
people curse me for telling them to stfo this market, 'we missed it man!' wait to see what you missed. and do not buy tesla, lol!
Trade active:
BTO Mar VIX $20 call.
December 2022 PPI data are scheduled to be released on January 18, 2023, at 8:30 A.M. Eastern Time. Cup & Handle to come imo.
December 2022 PPI data are scheduled to be released on January 18, 2023, at 8:30 A.M. Eastern Time. Cup & Handle to come imo.
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Here we gooooo...
Comment:
LOOKS like we got a reversal and DT starting BUT this has fooled us so many times. Trade lightly with care!
After another brief excursion above the 50 MA, price appears poised to move sharply below the 50.
RSI will get crushed under 20 in distress sale of capitulation.