All in the video. We had a nice move down last week, but this week I think it's likely that we have a bit of a struggle/chop in both directions before we start falling again. RSI is pointing to more upside and we have a gap open on SPX500 cash at 4500 area. I'll update when I can, I have more traveling this week.
Good luck!
Good luck!
Comment:
good morning, they pushed it overnight past the channel I was watching. The Original target of 4500 is still possible, but the smaller time frame RSI is overbought here. Another resistance is 4485-90, and that might be a better target for the end of this run. I expect more downside as of now after today.
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rejection at target area, it could be the top, not sure just yet.
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what
s interesting about today's move is both IWM and DJT are not participating in the rally. Some consider them to be a leading indicator, We'll see tomorrow. I predict SP gap fills today or overnight, but I still look for more downside tomorrow and rest of week.
s interesting about today's move is both IWM and DJT are not participating in the rally. Some consider them to be a leading indicator, We'll see tomorrow. I predict SP gap fills today or overnight, but I still look for more downside tomorrow and rest of week.
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One more high to test the previous topping area still looks likely to me. 4505-4510
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close up of channel
Comment:
they broke the overnight channel, so maybe the count is more like this. Either way, the small time frame RSI is quite low so I expect a bounce at or before open.
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another possibility is we finished only the A of a B wave - like this. This would mean that we come down today in anticipation of CPI tomorrow and then we have a strong move up after CPI, which would get rejected at the target I'm proposing - 4505-4510 (more or less). This would confuse the majority of participants and probably get most traders out of the market before the bigger move down. I still think a larger move down is coming, but the RSI being this low on smaller time frames bothers me here.
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here's the economic calendar, a site I keep bookmarked. us.econoday.com/byweek.asp
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daily 18ma is at about 4450, that may be the target if this plays out. The C wave target would then likely be the lower BB -
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IWM outperforming today - another sign (for me) tomorrow could be up after CPI. I've been waiting for this to kick bak, looks like it started.
