DaddySawbucks

Triple Top Incoming?

TVC:SPX   S&P 500 Index
Projection IF Three Drives leads to a Top, a breakout above ATH. Pure guess, a worst case scenario for the shorts. Insane rallies happen in endgame.

NOT saying this WILL happen; just that it certainly COULD, a blowoff ultimate ATH might be the last charge of the Great Bull, running since 2010.

2022 will certainly be challenging for equities IMO, all future growth is already discounted for thirty years, lol. Buffet indicator at an ATH, PE near 30.
Divergence in volume , small caps, AD, market internals getting soft even as the price rises... a parabolic blowoff may be imminent.

Although markets appear to have formed an H&S pattern, notably this can rarely lead to a continuation; on same page read Triple Tops as Variation of H&S , rare patterns: ref, J Murphy,

"Head and shoulders as a consolidation pattern: p. 115:
https://cdn.preterhuman.net/texts/unsort...

Comment: Pushback to S1, wil it hold? Futurez were green all night, opened lower, needs to fill IMO... maybe it will?
Comment: Looks like distribution IMO. Could be a buying oppy, could be a trap. Pre-FOMC jitters, eh?
Comment: TBVH not very bullish eh? They sold all the gains from Friday...Futures unfilled, could fill EOD, those contracts do drive price but they are settled EOD each day, hedge funds hate to eat the loss so they may buy shares to boost price and cover their losses in the futures. So chancy now, shorting again here could be genius or a bad mistake, lol.
Comment: No position yet. Waiting for a bounce might not get one today. Engulfing bear candle fgs. Could pump Tues or just rollover and close the big gap at 4612... dicey!
Comment: Flipped SPY calls on EOD lift. This nutty market goes from wild enthusiasm to weak and wiggly overnight.
probly get another rally Tues, followed by more weakness before FOMC
Comment: As bearish EOD as it was bullish EOD Friday. NOT acting like it wants to bull to a new ATH IMO, but this is still possible.

More likely is a move to close the gap at 4612 and then give a lower high EOY. OFC they could buy this all back Tues, FGS. No position O/N.
Comment: Some asking, what EOD lift? There was a weak rally until ~3:30 worth 100 pips from LOTD at noon. Stepped off just before the sell TBTG, missed the sell though, o well!
Comment: AH Futurz are modestly green, this means little for next session action, would not buy ETFs AH!

Likely shorts closing AH IMO
Comment: Well gosh Red Again... might really start selling here IMO, cascade waterfall coming?!
Comment: Filled the gap from last Tues after a week, back again. Dovish Fed could bounce it again. Not chasing shorts.
Comment: Gone oversold
Trade active: Flipped trades all day on the early lift and the sell after. Now RSI oversold, taking a diagonal call spread in SPY Christmas Calls, the 23 Dec 461C, short weekly 468C.
Ten spreads.
Comment: Amazing. Closed the calls before the EOD dump, missed the dump but I knew it could come so no longs near EOD on a Bear day, lol.

IMO the H&S and this dump strongly suggest the Top is IN. See if Santa brings rally to a lower high...

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