This series has followed a path since May 2020 using weekly data and Price Percent Oscillator (PPO). A PPO event trigger has been used for comparison against 14 previous large scale market declines over the last 100 years. Progress updates have been published using a monthly series of charts at TradingView. If you've followed along since July 2020 you've witnessed a steady path to May 2021 that was targeted back then. Our journey is now complete!
We finished week 52 subsequent to PPO trigger crossing upward origin at May 2020 following market's low in March 2020. This is the 15th event compared to 14 previous historic market declines of similar large magnitude.
* Average of prior 14 events: +32.51% after week 52
* 2020 as 15th event: Result of +41.23% after week 52
Note the chart's "Start" yellow arrow for comparison beginning at the PPO Signal event trigger on 5/18/2020 and "End" arrow at week ended 5/14/2021
The current recovery was above average and ranks 6th among all 15 historic outcomes. It finished slightly above the top trendline (since 2009) and near the suggested target from inception of this series. Not surprisingly, it has paused at the trendline near SPX 4136 coinciding with Fibonacci 1.618 using retracement at March 2020.
Looking 6 months ahead for 5 above average previous events shows a leveling of momentum (e.g., 18 month after)
Year, 12 months, 18 months
1921 48.52% / 53.68%
1932 85.58% / 110.19%
1942 48.56% / 41.07%
1982 57.54% / 49.62%
2009 41.76% / 45.25%
Of the 5 highest results in history, 2 were lower, 2 were only marginally higher (% is of original base, not 12 month amount), and only 1932 was exceptional after the Great Depression.
The current path has evolved closest to 2009 throughout the previous 12 months - sometimes higher, other times lower, week-by-week.
We all know the future is unknowable, but awareness of history and using technical indicators can assist with the path ahead.
We finished week 52 subsequent to PPO trigger crossing upward origin at May 2020 following market's low in March 2020. This is the 15th event compared to 14 previous historic market declines of similar large magnitude.
* Average of prior 14 events: +32.51% after week 52
* 2020 as 15th event: Result of +41.23% after week 52
Note the chart's "Start" yellow arrow for comparison beginning at the PPO Signal event trigger on 5/18/2020 and "End" arrow at week ended 5/14/2021
The current recovery was above average and ranks 6th among all 15 historic outcomes. It finished slightly above the top trendline (since 2009) and near the suggested target from inception of this series. Not surprisingly, it has paused at the trendline near SPX 4136 coinciding with Fibonacci 1.618 using retracement at March 2020.
Looking 6 months ahead for 5 above average previous events shows a leveling of momentum (e.g., 18 month after)
Year, 12 months, 18 months
1921 48.52% / 53.68%
1932 85.58% / 110.19%
1942 48.56% / 41.07%
1982 57.54% / 49.62%
2009 41.76% / 45.25%
Of the 5 highest results in history, 2 were lower, 2 were only marginally higher (% is of original base, not 12 month amount), and only 1932 was exceptional after the Great Depression.
The current path has evolved closest to 2009 throughout the previous 12 months - sometimes higher, other times lower, week-by-week.
We all know the future is unknowable, but awareness of history and using technical indicators can assist with the path ahead.