zSplit
Long

SPX: A Nice Relief Rally Coming; Another Wave Down Eventually

SPCFD:SPX   S&P 500 Index
Today is more than likely the START of a large corrective wave upwards. While yesterday was certainly a big move-up, one could not confidently invest after just yesterday's rally as snap-backs are inevitable in bear markets - the biggest snap-backs in history are indeed in bear markets. Currently we are due for a corrective wave upwards, and today was likely the confirmation.

It is important to note though that despite this near-term corrective wave upwards, there will likely be one final wave downwards to around the 1865 level. At that point I view this level as "the" bottom. This wave could start sometime in early to mid April and end sometime in May. As such I do believe the VIX will make new highs (wave 5) during this final corrective wave down, it will just be a little while.

When all the dust settles, how fast the economy actually rebounds depends on the distribution of the stimulus package and how fast consumers confidently go back to work and spend money. This remains to be seen and investors must watch the economic data closely around the world, and key micros/macros.

Some people view the economy having long-term permanent damage, while other people view it as rebounding sharply back to record highs by late 2020 or early 2021. I take a middle ground stance where the economy will indeed likely rebound, but gains could be short-lived due to the market starting to price in inflationary factors from the historic fiscal and monetary policy around the world. It is likely there will be another bear market (i.e. rolling bear markets) for a few years after COVID-19 even if the market gets near ATHs or hits ATHs.

Note: Don't necessarily expect this corrective wave upwards to be in a straight-line. There could still be volatility .

- zSplit

FAQ
Q. Will the jobless numbers data tomorrow (Thursday) make the markets sell-off?
A. Possible but probably nothing major. It is likely the market has already priced in at-least 1,000,000 jobless claims in the US and unless it is massively over this level (at-least double), the market will likely remain steady.

Q. Is this still a bear market?
A. Yes. I see a corrective wave upwards (hence the aforementioned information) but I do believe we will see a final wave down sometime in mid April, which will end sometime in late April or early May.
Mar 26
Comment: One important note I want to share with everyone is that just because I expect another wave down on the broader market, that does NOT necessarily mean every stock will make new lows.

In many cases, many stocks have bottomed and could re-test lower levels, but not all stocks will make new lows. It is more likely that stocks that sell directly to consumers could make new lows, however.

Therefore it is not a good strategy to keep waiting, just like its not a good strategy to buy in all at once. Over-exuberance is just as bad as patience. A middle ground is important.
Mar 26
Comment: **Important Secondary Note**

Although 2792 is my first major TP before potential selling, do remain cautious near 2695-2700 as this represents the first major gap close and the first pivot level.

It is POSSIBLE we could sell-off at that level.

Keep stops tight. Don't leverage. Don't try to be a hero.

Another wave down to test new lows or make new lows is virtually inevitable.

- zSplit
Mar 26
Comment: I will be releasing a new update early tomorrow (3AM Eastern Time On Friday) for the SPX.

Stay tuned!

Comments

Really direct, insightful analysis. Thank you!
+5 Reply
zSplit Gandeephan
@Gandeephan, Thanks a lot. My pleasure.
Reply
I've been following and reading your write up. Thank you for all your hard work.
+3 Reply
zSplit Grafikgurl
@Grafikgurl, Thanks so much.
Reply
solid info. nice write-up. appreciate it.
+3 Reply
zSplit ProjectSyndicate
Reply
great analysis..like ur other posts, wud be great if u incl. other relevant moves like VIX (which I dont see moved much frm yday).
I'd have expected to see down wave next week or so but I see ur chart that u expect to be a good momentum rally for 2-3 weeks, before taking a final dive to 18XX? How certain r u of that, specially looking at today's strong trend?
+2 Reply
thanks, zSplit, very insightful!
+2 Reply
zSplit PeterSl
@PeterSl, My pleasure buddy. Thanks for the support.
+1 Reply
Great analysis. I read your posts with interest. If you can share some thoughts on: As it was apparent today that jobless data was already factored in by investors, do you think negative companies April data will make a big impact, as investors are already anticipating that as well and might have already priced that in?
+1 Reply
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