This series has followed a path since May 2020 using weekly data and Price Percent Oscillator ( PPO ). A PPO event trigger has been used for comparison against 14 previous large scale market declines over the last 100 years. Progress updates have been published using a monthly series of charts published at TradingView.
We are entering week 38 of 52 since PPO trigger crossing upward at May 2020 following prior low in March 2020. This week we have seen a downward weekly PPO crossing (red arrow at bottom). This is the 15th event compared to 14 previous historic market declines of similar large magnitude.
* Average of prior 14 events: +21.69% after week 37
* 2020 as 15th event: +25.67% after week 37
Note the chart's "Start" yellow arrow for comparison beginning at the PPO /Signal event trigger on 5/18/2020.
The Average gain for the 14 historic events at week 52 is +34.44% (forward from time of PPO crossing) shown using a second Yellow arrow for May 2021.
The current recovery is trending above average and can be compared to previous near/above average events plus average trend for 14 previous events. Interestingly, 8 of 14 were above average after week 37. The current result ranks 7th among the 8 above average outcomes. Three of the above average outcomes finished lower than the eventual average after 52 weeks, including the lowest of the 8. However, all three, and the overall average, finished higher than the current event's 25.67% result at close 1/29/2021.
Looking ahead and comparing previous events at week 52:
3 of 8 finished below week 52 average: (2002, 1970, 1974)
5 of 8 finished > 38% higher than week 52 average (4 of 5 between 38%-49%: 1921, 1942, 1958, 2009 and 1 of 5 at 58% higher: 1982)
1 laggard at week 37 rallied and finished above 52 week average (and had best overall result, 1932).
5 remaining laggards continued to lag and finished below the 52 week average (1940, 1962, 1966, 1988, 2001).
If the current path follows history, then downside after 52 weeks may be limited and upside is attractive with only 15 weeks remaining until benchmark week 52.
Fibonacci levels are shown using retracement from peak to low in March 2020.
We are entering week 38 of 52 since PPO trigger crossing upward at May 2020 following prior low in March 2020. This week we have seen a downward weekly PPO crossing (red arrow at bottom). This is the 15th event compared to 14 previous historic market declines of similar large magnitude.
* Average of prior 14 events: +21.69% after week 37
* 2020 as 15th event: +25.67% after week 37
Note the chart's "Start" yellow arrow for comparison beginning at the PPO /Signal event trigger on 5/18/2020.
The Average gain for the 14 historic events at week 52 is +34.44% (forward from time of PPO crossing) shown using a second Yellow arrow for May 2021.
The current recovery is trending above average and can be compared to previous near/above average events plus average trend for 14 previous events. Interestingly, 8 of 14 were above average after week 37. The current result ranks 7th among the 8 above average outcomes. Three of the above average outcomes finished lower than the eventual average after 52 weeks, including the lowest of the 8. However, all three, and the overall average, finished higher than the current event's 25.67% result at close 1/29/2021.
Looking ahead and comparing previous events at week 52:
3 of 8 finished below week 52 average: (2002, 1970, 1974)
5 of 8 finished > 38% higher than week 52 average (4 of 5 between 38%-49%: 1921, 1942, 1958, 2009 and 1 of 5 at 58% higher: 1982)
1 laggard at week 37 rallied and finished above 52 week average (and had best overall result, 1932).
5 remaining laggards continued to lag and finished below the 52 week average (1940, 1962, 1966, 1988, 2001).
If the current path follows history, then downside after 52 weeks may be limited and upside is attractive with only 15 weeks remaining until benchmark week 52.
Fibonacci levels are shown using retracement from peak to low in March 2020.