Idea for SPY:
As of now, OpEx did not disappoint. We are in a descending channel and closed below prev. pivot range which sets a bearish tone for Monday. However, we may rally to the top of the channel for FOMC 22nd and still be bearish. DCL expected 28th~ Over 4485 must abandon short.
(Over 4500 and back in the wedge would return bullish)
Price had painted an IH&S structure, over the 50DMA but failed to breakout. We remain over the 50 DMA and there is a risk of Double Bottom.
However, price is now resting right above 'Quality Long Stop', which is a logical stop level for longs who might have bought at the previous IH&S, ready for an overnight stop hunt. Pleased to not be in an overnight long seeing this. The close was actually a Daily Cycle failure, signally weakness in the Dominant Cycle.
In the Macro Layer:
$DXY and $GOLD shows underlying risk-off.
The concern is that bonds have yet to react, or USTs are in fact being sold when we might expect them to be bought during risk-off:
The bottom line is that the Dominant Cycle indicates weakness, and with a reasonable SL, can confidently remain in short whilst in the descending channel.
GLHF
- DPT
As of now, OpEx did not disappoint. We are in a descending channel and closed below prev. pivot range which sets a bearish tone for Monday. However, we may rally to the top of the channel for FOMC 22nd and still be bearish. DCL expected 28th~ Over 4485 must abandon short.
(Over 4500 and back in the wedge would return bullish)
Price had painted an IH&S structure, over the 50DMA but failed to breakout. We remain over the 50 DMA and there is a risk of Double Bottom.
However, price is now resting right above 'Quality Long Stop', which is a logical stop level for longs who might have bought at the previous IH&S, ready for an overnight stop hunt. Pleased to not be in an overnight long seeing this. The close was actually a Daily Cycle failure, signally weakness in the Dominant Cycle.
In the Macro Layer:
$DXY and $GOLD shows underlying risk-off.
The concern is that bonds have yet to react, or USTs are in fact being sold when we might expect them to be bought during risk-off:
The bottom line is that the Dominant Cycle indicates weakness, and with a reasonable SL, can confidently remain in short whilst in the descending channel.
GLHF
- DPT
Comment:
Price made 2 honest efforts to break back into the rising wedge off of the 50 DMA (failed IH&S), was rejected, and settled in a DCF, which gives a bearish tone.
Comment:
Notice how price bounce off 4300 and closed right under the descending channel:
4290-4400 is the July Pivot Range and breaking below 4290~ would be a certain short. It bounced once, but breaking below and we are looking at 3700 IMO.
4290-4400 is the July Pivot Range and breaking below 4290~ would be a certain short. It bounced once, but breaking below and we are looking at 3700 IMO.
Comment:
It would appear that FOMC was not what bond market participants had expected:
On the 17th, price made an A down below the opening range, created a new low, snapped back to POC then settled lower in a DCF:
4400 seems to be the July pivot. It is said that the range of the 1st 2 weeks of July creates a pivot range which is statistically significant for the rest of the year. Price may make an effort to break into this range: 4290-4400. 4400 test seems likely by EOM.