TL;DR - bearish below 3807
The last update I posted publicly here on TradingView was one where I said it was likely we'd see a bottoming formation. Not long after that, SPX and the market as a whole put in a very large 2-day winning streak.
This winning streak was fueled by bulls and by bears getting squeezed out of their position. We are in a bear market and if you deny this, then you are not fit for markets like this. VIX is fueling for a huge breakout, and soon.
The projection I have here is one that I don't see anybody talking about. If you look at my previous count, you'll notice that I didn't see this as a nested 1-2-1-2 but as a 1-2-3-4. After being challenged by a good friend, I re-evaluated. They asked me to find a more bullish count (which I have found, btw), but instead I found an even more bearish count.
Let me explain this count
1. Let me first explain that EWT is highly subjective. Counts should only be used to validate your thesis formed elsewhere or using different tools rather than guiding your whole trading experience.
2. The wave structure didn't look quite right (to me). The move from 3900 on SEP 1 to 4120 on SEP 12 was too far to be a wave 4. Wave 4 is typically designed to move sideways and look boring. I didn't feel like this was happening.
3. The Trend-Based Fib Extension measurement that you see (note - AUG 26 > SEP 1 > SEP 12) has a 161.8-175.0% target at around 3619-3655. This is key for the next point, but also notice the 261.8 is at 3394.
4. A 5 wave structure can be seen moving down from the SEP 12 highs and the structure from approximately SEP 23 through OCT 5 was very choppy and very much resembled a wave 4. The wave 5 (of 3 of 3) terminated almost exactly at the 175% target (3623.29 || 3619.59).
5. From there, we further chopped into a larger wave 4 to hit that high at 3806.91. Why is this important? How does this further validate the potential for my 1-2-1-2 nested count? Let me tell you! The highest probability for a wave 4 retracement is at the 38.2% level. That level was at 3805.29. We tapped it and never hit it again. With the move down on Thursday and Friday, we have almost validated this count. Making a new yearly low would increase confidence that we will waterfall lower over the next couple weeks.
Until the next update in 2 weeks, have a safe trading experience!
The last update I posted publicly here on TradingView was one where I said it was likely we'd see a bottoming formation. Not long after that, SPX and the market as a whole put in a very large 2-day winning streak.
This winning streak was fueled by bulls and by bears getting squeezed out of their position. We are in a bear market and if you deny this, then you are not fit for markets like this. VIX is fueling for a huge breakout, and soon.
The projection I have here is one that I don't see anybody talking about. If you look at my previous count, you'll notice that I didn't see this as a nested 1-2-1-2 but as a 1-2-3-4. After being challenged by a good friend, I re-evaluated. They asked me to find a more bullish count (which I have found, btw), but instead I found an even more bearish count.
Let me explain this count
1. Let me first explain that EWT is highly subjective. Counts should only be used to validate your thesis formed elsewhere or using different tools rather than guiding your whole trading experience.
2. The wave structure didn't look quite right (to me). The move from 3900 on SEP 1 to 4120 on SEP 12 was too far to be a wave 4. Wave 4 is typically designed to move sideways and look boring. I didn't feel like this was happening.
3. The Trend-Based Fib Extension measurement that you see (note - AUG 26 > SEP 1 > SEP 12) has a 161.8-175.0% target at around 3619-3655. This is key for the next point, but also notice the 261.8 is at 3394.
4. A 5 wave structure can be seen moving down from the SEP 12 highs and the structure from approximately SEP 23 through OCT 5 was very choppy and very much resembled a wave 4. The wave 5 (of 3 of 3) terminated almost exactly at the 175% target (3623.29 || 3619.59).
5. From there, we further chopped into a larger wave 4 to hit that high at 3806.91. Why is this important? How does this further validate the potential for my 1-2-1-2 nested count? Let me tell you! The highest probability for a wave 4 retracement is at the 38.2% level. That level was at 3805.29. We tapped it and never hit it again. With the move down on Thursday and Friday, we have almost validated this count. Making a new yearly low would increase confidence that we will waterfall lower over the next couple weeks.
Until the next update in 2 weeks, have a safe trading experience!
