I keep taking little bites out of the S&P500, trying to find the top, this approach is not for the faint of heart as I am taking little cuts quite often. The goal is to find that peak and then add to the sustained drop, being wrong is part of the game.
I have included a chart as to why I am concerned about the market and the real people who play it:
- An unheard of 10+ year Bull run.
- MACD divergence going back to the
beginning of the year.
- RSI overbought on the daily.
- Price now Parabolic on the S&P500
- Price now over 10% away from the daily
200EMA, look back and see what has
happened when approaching that level of
divergence.
- Trade wars, global tensions, debt on
government and personal balance sheets
at crippling levels. serious caution.
This rally, in my opinion is going to be looked back on as "trader euphoria" that "irrational exuberance". I am fearful for the investor that is buy and hold only. I fear for the older folk who can't weather the correction that needs to happen. Being long only because some mutual fund jerk off in a stripmall is making you feel like you're "going to miss out", then the bubble bursts and your left holding garbage...pure garbage stocks that will take time, maybe a lot of time to come back to even. I simply caution people if you don't know what to do or how to do it.
Investing is not easy and trading actively is even more difficult.
We need to see the big picture here and remain calm and keep executing well over and over again. manage risk, manage your emotions and manage your own money. All to often we want to find blame on "this guy or that guy or this person or or or" take some responsibility and enjoy the pride and personal freedoms investing your own capital offers.
I wish everyone well and see us rising together not sharing a limited sized pie. There is enough opportunity for all of us throughout the year to add value to our portfolios and the lives around us.
Good Luck everyone. Reach out if you have any questions. I trade probabilities.
-Matthew Armstrong, CFTe
I have included a chart as to why I am concerned about the market and the real people who play it:
- An unheard of 10+ year Bull run.
- MACD divergence going back to the
beginning of the year.
- RSI overbought on the daily.
- Price now Parabolic on the S&P500
- Price now over 10% away from the daily
200EMA, look back and see what has
happened when approaching that level of
divergence.
- Trade wars, global tensions, debt on
government and personal balance sheets
at crippling levels. serious caution.
This rally, in my opinion is going to be looked back on as "trader euphoria" that "irrational exuberance". I am fearful for the investor that is buy and hold only. I fear for the older folk who can't weather the correction that needs to happen. Being long only because some mutual fund jerk off in a stripmall is making you feel like you're "going to miss out", then the bubble bursts and your left holding garbage...pure garbage stocks that will take time, maybe a lot of time to come back to even. I simply caution people if you don't know what to do or how to do it.
Investing is not easy and trading actively is even more difficult.
We need to see the big picture here and remain calm and keep executing well over and over again. manage risk, manage your emotions and manage your own money. All to often we want to find blame on "this guy or that guy or this person or or or" take some responsibility and enjoy the pride and personal freedoms investing your own capital offers.
I wish everyone well and see us rising together not sharing a limited sized pie. There is enough opportunity for all of us throughout the year to add value to our portfolios and the lives around us.
Good Luck everyone. Reach out if you have any questions. I trade probabilities.
-Matthew Armstrong, CFTe
I moderate a small community 4 traders, analyzing weekly charts, and discussing trade setups. Focusing on psychology.