S&P ABC breakdown from previous elliot wave W/ Fundamental
Bonds yield are getting a little out of hand and there are both midterms and an uncertain pro business trump re election to scew in that favor.
More importantly as interest rates rise, the US is extremely vulnerable because of how much leveraged debt it has accumulated due to free money. There may also be a more impactful trade war and I believe the impacts of that will probably take a year to start showing in China. They recently started easing capital requirements in their over-indebted situation so they must think it will get bad.
Finally, there's this 3 wave move up that isn't measured perfectly as Elliot wave, but I think when I did the math it yielded the lower target.
Otherwise, upper final target more likely, will post a more detailed view as time goes on?
Its too messy to show all of my work on the retracements and stuff on the graph so it looks kind of half effort.
More importantly as interest rates rise, the US is extremely vulnerable because of how much leveraged debt it has accumulated due to free money. There may also be a more impactful trade war and I believe the impacts of that will probably take a year to start showing in China. They recently started easing capital requirements in their over-indebted situation so they must think it will get bad.
Finally, there's this 3 wave move up that isn't measured perfectly as Elliot wave, but I think when I did the math it yielded the lower target.
Otherwise, upper final target more likely, will post a more detailed view as time goes on?
Its too messy to show all of my work on the retracements and stuff on the graph so it looks kind of half effort.
Comment:
Comment:
I've been reading up more on debt bubbles, apparently they always start with heavy selling in a period of good earnings. Would make sense that the market will trend up through decent holiday earnings.
2008 bubble made one move down like the one that just happened and then retraced 78% so I would assume same will happen. Will buy 78% retrace from the last small bull move because balance is cool. Unless you do yoga which is kind of lame.
I've been reading up more on debt bubbles, apparently they always start with heavy selling in a period of good earnings. Would make sense that the market will trend up through decent holiday earnings.
2008 bubble made one move down like the one that just happened and then retraced 78% so I would assume same will happen. Will buy 78% retrace from the last small bull move because balance is cool. Unless you do yoga which is kind of lame.
Comment:
basically what those number equate to is buy near 0% ytd gains and sell at 8% ytd gains... the historical average. that means market printed 10% ytd at the high and people instead of buying the dip sold the rally at 80% of the high
Remember, the bottom of this range is only 50% of the way to the bottom of wave A.