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SHORT TERM PRICE ACTION
Since the rally at the beginning of May, we've seen price tumble to yearly lows. This could be due to the popular effect of seasonality - better know as "Sell in May and go away."
From a technical standpoint, since plummeting 10% price was able to claw back 50% back into the last broken market structure and found resistance.
Since then, there was a high volume of selling taking place which is evident in the nature of the full bearish candles.
Now, back to yearly lows, we should find some support and potentially have a small retracement filling some gaps due to price inefficiencies in the rapid move down.
Where we go from there is uncertain, however, due to the macro climate, and also the current season we're in. Its a higher probability we go lower. The easiest trades short term would be to wait for price to rise into prev. support turned resistance and short, while having a stop above the last high before the s/r level.
OR
After an impulse move and you've found a bottom, you can long the relief retracement with a trailing stop.
I recommend the former. NFA.
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LONG TERM PRICE ACTION
Looking 6 weeks back, we see that for the first time since before COVID, that price is under the 20EMA and instead of breaking back up and finding support, it finds resistance for the first time and the 1W candle closes bearish. This would have been the confirmation of trend change and a typical break and retest. In the analysis below, I pointed it out as it was happening & also explained what was likely to happen next.
When looking at the BollingerBands, price has been riding the lower band for the past 4 weeks after breaking and retesting a significant level. Naturally, at some point we should expect a rally back up to the mid-line (20ema).
If we look at the fixed range volume from the pandemic lows to the top, this shows us the key areas that the most buyers and sellers were interested in.
Right now, it shows we should find some relief at this level, which coincides with the BB.
There are 2 significant resistance levels above current price, which will likely coincide with the 20EMA at some point. Whenever that happens and we get a bearish 1W candle, that is the time I will be looking to short again.
Similarly to Bitcoin, because of the up-only price movement, many people are still catching knifes assuming the best, when the chart is showing us exactly what it wants to do. The bull market has lost momentum and it seems to have turned tides, this is likely the start of a new trend/retracement back to the area of strongest support which can be seen on the chart above.
Previous analysis linked.
Let me know your opinion.
Always assume my risk tolerance is larger than yours and that as more data enters the market I can switch my bias.
I will keep this thread updated nonetheless.
SHORT TERM PRICE ACTION
Since the rally at the beginning of May, we've seen price tumble to yearly lows. This could be due to the popular effect of seasonality - better know as "Sell in May and go away."
From a technical standpoint, since plummeting 10% price was able to claw back 50% back into the last broken market structure and found resistance.
Since then, there was a high volume of selling taking place which is evident in the nature of the full bearish candles.
Now, back to yearly lows, we should find some support and potentially have a small retracement filling some gaps due to price inefficiencies in the rapid move down.
Where we go from there is uncertain, however, due to the macro climate, and also the current season we're in. Its a higher probability we go lower. The easiest trades short term would be to wait for price to rise into prev. support turned resistance and short, while having a stop above the last high before the s/r level.
OR
After an impulse move and you've found a bottom, you can long the relief retracement with a trailing stop.
I recommend the former. NFA.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LONG TERM PRICE ACTION
Looking 6 weeks back, we see that for the first time since before COVID, that price is under the 20EMA and instead of breaking back up and finding support, it finds resistance for the first time and the 1W candle closes bearish. This would have been the confirmation of trend change and a typical break and retest. In the analysis below, I pointed it out as it was happening & also explained what was likely to happen next.
When looking at the BollingerBands, price has been riding the lower band for the past 4 weeks after breaking and retesting a significant level. Naturally, at some point we should expect a rally back up to the mid-line (20ema).
If we look at the fixed range volume from the pandemic lows to the top, this shows us the key areas that the most buyers and sellers were interested in.
There are 2 significant resistance levels above current price, which will likely coincide with the 20EMA at some point. Whenever that happens and we get a bearish 1W candle, that is the time I will be looking to short again.
Similarly to Bitcoin, because of the up-only price movement, many people are still catching knifes assuming the best, when the chart is showing us exactly what it wants to do. The bull market has lost momentum and it seems to have turned tides, this is likely the start of a new trend/retracement back to the area of strongest support which can be seen on the chart above.
Previous analysis linked.
Let me know your opinion.
Always assume my risk tolerance is larger than yours and that as more data enters the market I can switch my bias.
I will keep this thread updated nonetheless.
Comment:
The above is from a purely technical view, not considering fundamental factors that may affect price and the market at large.
Comment:
Short Term Chart UPDATE:
Price has found resistance at the 38% retracement, and hasnt retest the last broken market structure. Ill be longing here at the 0% line. Catching a knife, but I think we go up before we go down.
Price has found resistance at the 38% retracement, and hasnt retest the last broken market structure. Ill be longing here at the 0% line. Catching a knife, but I think we go up before we go down.
Comment:
Fully testing that last broken structure. A break of short term trend here could mean relief up to the next daily level.
Comment:
Comment:
Update 4H:
Comment:
These analyses are my personal view on the market.
Always assume my investment risk tolerance is higher than yours
I’m here to make money, not hold your hand. Never blindly trust any analysis you see online because it fits your bias (including mine).
Always assume my investment risk tolerance is higher than yours
I’m here to make money, not hold your hand. Never blindly trust any analysis you see online because it fits your bias (including mine).
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